A severe weather outbreak is expected today and tonight across parts of the Midwest and southern Plains states. Locations that could be impacted by strong tornadoes include northern KS, southern NE, a large chunk of IA, and western MO.
Top 15 weather analogs as provided by Saint Louis University depict at least 4 analogs (ranked 3,4,13, 15) showing the likelihood of tornadoes across these areas.
Some cities that could be impacted...
Grand Isle NE
Lincoln NE
Des Moines IA
Fort Dodge IA
Ottumwa IA
Topeka KS
Kansas City MO
The #4 ranked analog contributed much of the storm reports for the areas. That particular storm system on May 25 2008 produced an EF-5 tornado in Parkersburg IA. There were 9 deaths and at least 50 injuries across Butler and Black Hawk counties. Most of the deaths occurred in Parkersburg.
Read about this memorable storm system in 'What They Were Talking About' section of my blog.
Just a reminder. All because analogs show what happened during a particular storm event does not mean that this will happen again and in the same areas. However, since 2 of the top 5 analogs are included in this severe weather update, the chances for a significant severe weather outbreak appears likely in those areas
In addition to the possibility of strong tornadoes, some meteorologists are forecasting a significant high wind event called a derecho for areas east and south of the areas above.
This storm system is likely expected to impact our region tomorrow afternoon and evening with strong to severe storms. Stay tuned
MS
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