As for Louisville, I looked at models and analogs, current cloud cover, and so on, and I've lessened my chances for the Metro's potential severe weather episode(s).
This does not mean that I'm now saying severe weather will not occur here. Yesterday's analogs and model forecasts had me thinking of at least a 40% chance for severe weather in the Louisville area for this evening. I've now reduced that to 25%.
A potent storm system will spark afternoon convection and push south/east afterward. I do think a Watch box will be issued for parts of our region. In addition, an update from the SPC is due out within the hour. I will provide an update for that soon.
Despite the lowering chance for severe weather, I'm on my way to Lowes or Home Depot and get me some fresh 2-cycle engine oil for my chainsaw.
Hope everyone stays safe.
MS
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