Severe Weather Chances for the Region

Analogs are very consistent in support of severe weather with the approaching storm system this weekend. Let me preface the rest of this post that the potential is there for severe weather across the region, but that means certain parameters do have to be in place for the severe events to happen.

Instability, time of event, wind shear, moisture advection, just to name a few must all work together for the probabilities for severe weather to occur.

According to the latest data that I considered, central and southern parts of Indiana have the best chance for tornadic storm cells, greater than 10 percent. This would be a 'few tornadoes possible' definition for the 10 percent criteria, in my opinion. Louisville is in the 5 percent shading, indicative of 'isolated tornadoes possible'.

Based on the chance for severe weather, the analogs I considered today still show a moderate risk from Salem IN to Muncie IN. Based on how the SPC looks at the data, if they believe enough instability will be present, I would expect a Moderate Risk to go out for these areas for Saturday.

Louisville would be in the high-end slight risk category, again for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds/large hail. Of course, most if not all of the parameters do have to be met for this scenario to unfold. So far, it's not as likely as the analogs are suggesting. Still, we must monitor upcoming forecasts for Saturday, especially.

More later.

MS

Tornado Chances Increasing for Indiana Fri/Sat

I've been impressed with the analogs the past few days. They've helped predict these tornadoes out west. The same analogs are depicting higher tornado chances for parts of central and southern Indiana during the next 24 to 60 hours.

Although Louisville is not in the main zone, remember, this is not a forecast exactly where tornadoes will occur, but the general region in and around the suggested locations. Therefore, Louisville should be on guard.

A damaging wind threat appears to be the main solution, mostly over Indiana.

I would think moderate risks for severe weather will go up from the SPC for Fri/Sat time frame. This would include Indiana, Illinois, and maybe extreme northern KY.

Stay tuned.

MS

Valley Station KY Has Been Dry Lately

During the past two weeks since May 13, Louisville Int'l has recorded 0.77" rainfall. I live about 15 minutes southwest of the airport and have recorded about the same amount (0.76").

I planted my vegetable garden a bit late, on May 13 actually. The frost chances scared me off for a while. Also, I collected nearly 6 gallons of rain water this month. I'm down to 3 gallons or about 25 percent of my 12-gallon capacity.

Since my garden is bigger this year, I need more rain water during the dryer periods. Looks like our best chances will be this weekend. Hopefully, we can get a good soaking.

MS

Additional Tornadoes For This Week?

I decided to play with some of the analogs again. This time of year, predicting where tornadoes will occur based on the analogs can be frustrating.

Although not an actual forecast, based on how similar weather systems have performed in the past helps determine the chances of something like them occurring again.

Let's see, today is May 28. Really, starting late today into tomorrow, isolated tornadoes are forecast across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. According to the analogs, the event tonight and tomorrow will not be as big of a deal as the chances will be for Thursday.

By then, main action shifts into Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. The GFS analogs are showing an enhanced risk for tornadoes for May 30 or Thursday. Could be a late night (Wednesday) or early morning (Thursday) event. That would be bad news since it is much harder to see tornadoes in the dark.

Currently, Wichita KS is only forecasting isolated tornadoes for today and a large hail/damaging wind event for Wed/Thr time frame.

Des Moines IA is forecasting a better chance for severe weather late Wed/early Thursday time frame, not really elaborating too much about that. Obviously, their main concern at the moment is the expectation for more heavy rain in the waterlogged areas.

MS

Tornado Deaths Since 2011

Moore OK tornado has now claimed in excess of two dozen individuals (actually revised downward as of late morning) including many young people as of this report. This has been the deadliest tornado day since May 22, 2011. Upwards of 158 people lost their lives near Joplin MO alone.

According to the SPC's Annual Killer Tornado Statistics page, since that day through May 15 2013, the number of people killed by tornadoes had been 107.

Since May 15, the number of tornado deaths has been at least 30. And the threat of tornadoes is not over yet. More tornadic storms are forecast for parts of Texas into Arkansas.

Source:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/fatalmap.php?yr=2013

MS

Global Hazards Report No Longer Available from National Climatic Data Center

One of the most useful components from the NCDC is now no longer available. The Global Hazards monthly page provided a nice synopsis of extreme weather happening across the globe. Drought, fires, floods, hurricanes, cold, heat, sea ice extent, etc... have all been reported on this page throughout the years. I've used the information not less than a few times on my blog.

The NCDC says it will reevaluate its decision by September. The contribution and impact of the Global Hazards page has been quite useful to me as I'm sure is the case with other weather watchers. It expands my horizons allowing us to look at things outside of the {U.S.} box. I gain a better understanding of how global weather patterns have affected other countries besides our own. How have other countries dealt with natural disasters and what effect do these events have on my pocketbook when I go to the supermarket? For those interested in global warming, these reports help us to understand better how extreme weather could be here to stay. Possibly, it may move us to keep considering how best to do our part in not contributing any extra to the overall warming of the planet.

Hopefully, this is not about money too. So many programs have to be budgeted. It's a shame to eliminate the good programs. In September, I along with others look forward to seeing the Global Hazards page reinstated.

MS

Will We Hit 90???

After a month off, I feel pretty refreshed. Well, perhaps not yesterday or today do I feel refreshed. Humidity levels have been elevated lately making it a bit more uncomfortable outside. Definitely not refreshing.

Forecast highs are aiming for 90 degrees here in Louisville. Would like to see it happen.

However, satellite imagery is showing cloud debris, perhaps from storm blow-off out west. Nevertheless, these clouds have been increasing over the past hour or so.

Radar not showing anything. But the stubborn clouds may keep temperatures down just a bit, if they don't hurry up and scour out of here.

I'm knocking temps down a couple of degrees for today at 88.

MS