Analogs are very consistent in support of severe weather with the approaching storm system this weekend. Let me preface the rest of this post that the potential is there for severe weather across the region, but that means certain parameters do have to be in place for the severe events to happen.
Instability, time of event, wind shear, moisture advection, just to name a few must all work together for the probabilities for severe weather to occur.
According to the latest data that I considered, central and southern parts of Indiana have the best chance for tornadic storm cells, greater than 10 percent. This would be a 'few tornadoes possible' definition for the 10 percent criteria, in my opinion. Louisville is in the 5 percent shading, indicative of 'isolated tornadoes possible'.
Based on the chance for severe weather, the analogs I considered today still show a moderate risk from Salem IN to Muncie IN. Based on how the SPC looks at the data, if they believe enough instability will be present, I would expect a Moderate Risk to go out for these areas for Saturday.
Louisville would be in the high-end slight risk category, again for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds/large hail. Of course, most if not all of the parameters do have to be met for this scenario to unfold. So far, it's not as likely as the analogs are suggesting. Still, we must monitor upcoming forecasts for Saturday, especially.
More later.
MS
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