Here's the latest...
The latest GEM presents a solution on Christmas day that shows precipitation breaking out across the region, especially the central and eastern parts of the state. The location of the low looks favorable for wintry precipitation, but...
The precip type map above shows mostly rain, albeit a cold rain, for the entire region. Now, as the low shifts off to the east and northeast, the colder air will wrap around into the region with any leftover precipitation changing to a period of lt snow or flurries.
The 2m Temperature profile shows why we could expect mostly rain for the region initially...
Temperatures above are presented in Celsius, but you can tell by the color shadings that the nearest blue (or freezing) line would be back in Illinois, moving quickly behind the low that could be traversing the Smokies by this time on Christmas day.
Next up on board is the GFS (12z)
MS
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