GFS Model On A Roll

I have followed the GFS forecast model for the past two significant weather systems. Even though there were obvious flaws in presentation and consistency from run to run, its basic thought outclassed its 'foreign' competitors, the GEM and ECMWF, in the medium range forecasts.

There is another storm system lurking that should bring us precipitation during the day Tuesday, with changeover from rain to at least a mix of rain/snow quite possible by evening. Both the GFS and GEM are showing residual snow in the area Tuesday evening, primarily east of Louisville, that may include light accumulation. Considering a wet ground, any significant accumulation does not look likely unless any heavier bursts of snow that may develop cause deteriorating circumstances briefly.

However, the storm system looks to make a quick exit. There is no definitive TREND  toward a colder pattern, based on my observations of the current NAO forecast. So far, the GFS forecast model and the NAO have provided me with the correct assumptions so far. Therefore, I'm sticking with them on this next system, as it has similar characteristics to previous systems.

So, expect rain with a good chance for at least mixed precipitation, possibly all snow toward the end of the storm system's influence on our region. Light accumulations are possible. Again, don't get too excited as the ground should be too wet and 'warm' for any decent, long-lasting sticking snows.

Of interest to me at present, is the NAM's forecast guidance. Look for their forecast at about 36 hours out to see the best scenario for our weather.

MS