Model Wars INTRO

It seems so many weather professionals and enthusiasts rely on the long-term model runs nowadays. You know, I think they're great for giving us an idea about an impending 'large' storm system.

However, and even the professionals will tell you this, so it's not just me, these medium to long-range model runs should not be relied upon to tell you exactly what you're going to get 6-10 days out. Each model run normally adjusts, sometimes wildly, in order to ascertain the best scenario for how the weather will unfold over the coming days. That's normal.

Yet, so many people, often weather enthusiasts like myself, figuratively live and die by each model run of a storm system that hasn't even come into existence.

What I like to do is check out the medium to long-range models and try to take note of any TRENDS, hopefully consistent trends about a particular setup that could lead to significant weather affecting our region. I know that the models are going to flip, waffle, swing, sizzle, and fizzle. That's OK. I expect that to happen because the models are trying to interpret data that is constantly changing. Therefore, I, for one, try not to get too excited about each and every model run from so far out in the future.

But, you may wonder, which of the medium to long-range models are most reliable or most accurate? Good question. I've heard people praise the European model, some the Canadian, and others the GFS. Although each has their strong side, each also has their weak side. Some may be good at showing a future Arctic outbreak but cannot determine how to develop a southern storm system based on energy ejecting out of the southwest. Other models may be able to show a Great Lakes cutter but cannot 'time' a system consistently or accurately.

Well, just for fun, let's try and keep up with some of the more popular medium to long-range models anytime a possible 'big' storm system looms on the horizon and determine which one is best. To be fair, though, I'm going to go out about 6 days so that all of these models will have a chance.

Remember, though, each storm system should be different. I believe that we'll discover some of these models are actually better than others when handling a particular storm system.

Therefore, be looking for it. I'll be posting the first Model Wars soon. I've looked at a few of the models so far, but nothing that important for our weather by next Saturday yet. However, there is a west coast storm to look at and a developing southern storm that is on the grids by then. But, I'm really interested in a possible Pacific storm system that may follow the upcoming one.

MS