Large Brush Fire in San Diego County

Brief Update on wildfire...7:55pm edt
According to 10news.com, "The California Highway Patrol reported on its website that a Toyota Camry hit a pole and caught fire about 10:30 a.m. near the intersection of Pala Temecula and Moro roads, but the official cause of the wildfire remained under investigation."

Been following a 300-acre brush fire in San Diego county at Pala Temecula Rd.

Evacuation advisories are under way as some homes are being threatened in the Pala, CA area.

Updates can be found here.
I've been following the action on the police scanner channel here.

MS

Caught On Tape...

This one will make the 'stupid criminals' list...
Click HERE.

Burglary suspects caught in the act while LIVE TV report in progress.

MS

Doomed Sailboat In Irene's Fury

Check out this video link of a sailboat caught in Irene's fury...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skxOyyYReQk

There were two people that had to be rescued.

MS

Babies Born During Storm Have Been Named Irene

Despite the violent, unpredictable weather raging along the Carolina coast, two girls that were born during hurricane Irene have been named after the hurricane.



How fitting the scene above since Irene's name means "peace".

If you wish to read the article, click HERE.

MS

North Carolina Drought and Hurricane Update...

I'll be posting rainfall amounts for parts of NC over the weekend in a minute; however, take a look at last week's Drought Monitor Index for the Carolinas.

Without a doubt, this will help alleviate some of those conditions...I know always the optimist, looking at the bright side of things after the ordeal the residents were and are experiencing there.

The map below shows what would have been needed to relieve the drought conditions to near normal...
Click on the map and take a closer look at North Carolina. Some places needed over 15" of rain to alleviate the current drought.

Next, take a look at Irene's wind effects for North Carolina...

Enlarge the map if needed by clicking on it. Impressive winds indeed.

Now, for the weekend rainfall amounts for selected locations across North Carolina...
Raleigh-Durham 0.54"
Beaufort 6.25"
Wilmington 6.65"
Cape Hatteras 6.71"
New Bern 7.79"
Greenville 11.72"

MS

Looking Ahead to September...

Here's a look at what the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is saying for September...

The map above shows the 6-10 day outlook

Next, take a look at the 8-14 day outlook

As of the Aug 28 report, temps are expected to be below normal for the period Sep 5 - 11.

For the month of September, we're expecting near equal chances for temps and precip to be above normal, below normal, or normal...In other words, just flip a 3-sided coin.
However, the latest update has not been published. Last update was August 18. I'll post that as soon as it becomes available.

MS

The Big Apple vs The Coast Wrecker

8:15am
Continue to follow updates at NBC-4 New York. Good coverage there. High tide is occurring.

Just watched Cantore on the Weather Channel. I like Jim, love his enthusiasm. It always seems as if he's at the center of the worst weather. This time, however, it almost seemed like he was complaining that the storm was much stronger across the Outer Banks of NC than where he is along Battery Park in lower Manhattan. I had predicted a few days ago that winds should peak out at 60-70 mph there. Conditions are still bad in NY, but not nearly as bad as some were predicting.

Nevertheless, I defend the evacuation orders because if no orders were given and serious flooding occurred along with loss of life, then people would be 'up in arms' over that 'horrible' decision not to evacuate. But, it goes to show you can't please everyone. Some are going to look back on this and question whether they should heed the next evac order, should one occur again.
---------------------
6:55am UPDATE
22 ft waves being reported at bouys offshore.
Eye should move between Brooklyn and Queens, bringing storm surge along with an approaching astronomical high tide.
67 mph wind gust at LaGuardia
-----------------
6:45am UPDATE
Power outage updates
213,000 PSG&E
208,000 along Long Island
68,000 ConEd
As of this post, Manhattan has zero power outages, thanks to underground wires. But, that could change.
Expecting 5-7 days before power could be restored in many locations according to PSG&E
-------------------------
6:30am UPDATE
High tide expected around 8:00am
Irene moving a little faster thus coinciding storm surge and high tide; could be major flooding.
5-10" rain expected.
-------------------------
6:15am UPDATE
Now tuned in to NBC station in NY...
Death toll up to 10 along east coast of US
Roof partially torn of NJ apartment.
More updates LIVE coverage at Channel 4 HERE

Police now say a river is about to flood highway in New York city, wants to shut it down...more on this as info becomes available.
---------------
6:00 am UPDATE
Listening to Suffolk county Police scanner on Long Island...
Many fire hazards as trees are bringing down live power lines, transformer fires as well.
Roads are flooding.
---------------------------
Sounds like a Godzilla movie...but this is really serious. As of 5:40am, waking up to over 2,500,000 power outages along the east coast of the U.S.

Power outages are rapidly increasing in the boroughs of New York City. Listening to police scanners, several trees blocking highways, falling on apartment dwellings trapping residents, and downing power lines.

The LIE has a tree blocking right side of roadway.
Near the entrance to the Bronx Zoo, tree blocking both sides of the highway.
Fire Depts are very busy this morning, responding to several fires, mostly weather-related.
Wires down near E. 18th.

Irene's Next Destination...NY, PA, and NJ

7:40pm UPDATE
Over 21,000 in and around the Washington DC area with power outages according to Pepco.

7:25pm UPDATE
Over 358,000 of the 491,000 Dominion customers in the Richmond Metro/Tricities have outages.
Dominion's total customer count for outages now approaching 800,000.
That means over 1 million total customers along the East coast have no power...and we haven't begun to affect the large cities of the northeast yet.
-----------------------------
6:00pm UPDATE
Follow LIVE blog from WAVY.com
Now, over 700,000 Dominion customers out of power according to the blog
http://www.wavy.com/generic/weather/hurricane/Hurricane-Coverage-Live-Stream-2011-new

5:45pm UPDATE

Water main break at Granby Street Bridge
Click HERE for the latest updates near Virginia Beach and Norfolk
So far, a curfew is in effect for Portsmouth and one cannot get from the Outer Banks to Manteo due to a power line across the route.

4:45pm UPDATE
Power outages continue to escalate...
Now, nearly 900,000 without power along the Carolinas and Virginia.
Up to 9,000 without power from Delmarva Power
http://www.delmarva.com/home/emergency/maps/stormcenter/

Over 10,000 out of power near Baltimore...and it's just getting started there.
http://www.bge.com/customerservice/stormsoutages/currentoutages/Pages/default.aspx
-----------------------------------
3:30pm UPDATE
Duke Energy (sound familiar?) also operates in parts of NC. Large outages being reported in Orange and Durham counties, some 15,000 of the 17,000+ customers in the coverage area.

Listen to this police scanner channel from Norfolk VA; lots of action going on...
http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=1387

3:00pm UPDATE
Wallops Island VA getting walloped...2:00pm reading of 62 mph wind gusts and close to 3.5" rain
Norfolk VA barometric pressure reading at 28.99" as of the 3:00pm report...
477,000+ Progress Energy customers with no power; over 200,000 of those in SE Virginia including Norfolk.
Richmond VA Metro now reports over 160,000 outages
Cape Hatteras 74 mph wind gust and pressure at 28.67"- 3:00pm report
 ----------------------------
1:50pm UPDATE
Here's an update on power outages so far...
269,000+ Progress Energy customers in NC affected. At least 7 counties of the Progress customer area are reporting outages nearly or at 100%.

331,000+ Dominion customers affected. Of those, 184,000 now affected in SE Virginia including Norfolk.

Delmarva Power now reporting 1,500 customers, mostly in Winomica county near Salisbury MD

Flash flood warnings for Lexington Park, southeast of Washington DC.
---------------------------------
1:10pm UPDATE
Looking at current conditions around NY, the 93 mph wind gust out of Westhampton ASOS appears inaccurate. However, conditions will be deteriorating later today and especially tonight.
--------------------------------------------
Just got a wind report from the National Hurricane Center East Coast Skywarn Net. At 12:42pm, the Westhampton NY ASOS reported a wind gust of 93mph. I'm thinking that may be inaccurate. Looking for additional information to confirm that gust.

Wilmington vs Irene...

Watch this RADAR for the action from Irene's bands...

UPDATE 11:30am Saturday
Over 189,000 Progress Energy customers now affected; including over 60,000 customers in New Hanover county, which is over half of Wilmington.
Craven county in NC is reporting over 14,000 outages or 78% of total customers.

Can you imagine if this storm was a little closer and stronger???

SE Virginia, a significantly populated area and tourists' attraction is reporting nearly 116,000 outages now, according to Dominion Electric; about 15% of the customer area. Most outages located near Newport News and Norfolk VA.

Over 50,000 customers affected in those parts of NC located near the Outer Banks, some 40% of the Dominion customers there.
------------------------------------
UPDATE 4:20am Saturday
Over 67,000 Progress Energy customers affected; includes Wilmington, Fayetteville, and Raleigh.
Nearly 12,000 Dominion customers affected; includes SE Virginia and part of NC.
Over 5" rain in Wilmington with winds gusting over 50mph.
Reports of tree blocking roadway according to police scanner.
Latest pressure reading at 982mb or 29.00".
68 mph wind gust last hour at Hatteras' Mitchell Field and nearly 4" rain.
-----------------------------------
As of 10:00pm, over 8,000 Progress Energy customers offline

Seeing Irene (webcams, police scanners, news)

UPDATE
I've decided to give Irene a memorable nickname...Coast Wrecker. This is in stark contrast to what the name 'Irene' means..."peace".

I have compiled a list of references you can use for keeping up with the progress of Hurricane Irene.
Keep checking back in case other references may be added...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ National Hurricane Center

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ NWS Eastern Region Headquarters

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecir.html Satellite imagery east coast US

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?stid=37 North Carolina police scanners

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?stid=10 Delaware police scanners

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?ctid=1855 New York police scanners

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?ctid=1213 Cape Cod police scanners

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?stid=25 Massachusetts police scanners

http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?ctid=1876 Suffolk county NY police scanners

http://www.wect.com/category/66683/first-alert-camera-at-wrightsville-beach?redirected=true Wilmington NC News and Webcam

http://www.surfchex.com/ 5 North Carolina  beach webcams including Nags Head

http://www.outerbanks.net/webcams Several webcams along Outer Banks of NC

http://www.capecodlivecam.com/beachcomber.shtml Cape Cod MA at Beachcomber

http://www.capecodlivecam.com/ Other Cape Cod webcams

http://www.easy2surf.com/cams/nylvcam.htm New York webcams

http://www1.whdh.com/ Boston MA News

https://www.progress-energy.com/app/outagemaps/carolinas.aspx Power outage map Wilmington NC

http://www.dom.com/storm-center/dominion-electric-outage-summary.jsp Power outage map Norfolk VA, Virginia Beach

http://www.delaware.coop/outage_map.php Power outage map Delaware

http://www.lipower.org/stormcenter/outages/outagemap.html Power outage map Long Island New York

http://www1.nationalgridus.com/masselectric/stormcenter/ Power outage map Massachusetts

http://apps.coned.com/weboutageinfo/stormcenter/default.aspx Power outage map New York City

I will be adding more to this page as Irene nears the US mainland. Keep checking back often...

MS

EARTHQUAKE in Northern Peru

An estimated 7.0 earthquake has occurred in the jungles of northern Peru near Brazil. Damage is expected to be light because the depth of the earthquake occurred some 90 miles beneath the surface.

More updates HERE

Irene Has A New Eyewall

6:00pm UPDATE
During this post, I noted that there was a hint of a westerly jog in Irene's movement. The NHC, as expected, has noticed it too. Some other models are picking up on this as well. Still, quite a bit of uncertaintly 4-5 days out...but here's the latest...
THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

While the models keep Irene offshore, they make it more interesting and too close for comfort. Regardless of where Irene chooses to go, its impacts will be felt across a large chunk of the East coast. Expect major beach erosion, coastal flooding, lots of rain on top of recently softened grounds, and perhaps damaging winds. A possible New England landfall is not out of the question.

In my Miks Piks section of the blog, I will be posting various links to news stations, web cams, and police scanners.
--------------------------------------------------
As is customary for healthy hurricanes, they generally undergo an eyewall replacement stage periodically. Surprisingly to me, a westward jog occurred. We'll need to monitor the progress or trend. But at first sight, it appears that Irene has taken a little more westerly jog during the last report.

The NHC will have more to say about this during their 5:00pm report.

This is a huge storm and continues to strengthen, now at 120mph, or 954mb.

For Cat 3 storm information, here is what the Saffir-Simpson Scale says...
Central Pressure:  945 - 964mb; 27.9 - 28.5"
Winds: 111-130 mph
Damage: Extensive

MS

On This Day August 24

On this day in 1990, Long Island NY received 5-7" of rain from heavy thunderstorms, closing major highways.

Sound familiar???

On Aug 14-15, just within the past week and a half, Long Island Islip's MacArthur Airport received nearly 6.50" of rain. However, some spots reportedly accumulated nearly 11". Needless to say, many residents suffered much in the way of property and business losses.

Here's a nice recap of the flooding that occurred...Press this LINK

MS

Louisville's Hot Summer 2011

Forecasters that I listen to leaned more toward a cooler than normal summer. Well, how have we done here in Louisville?

Counting today, we have had 49 days at or above 90 degrees this year. For the summer, technically 44 days. Still above average.

For the summer, how does this summer compare to other summers so far?
Jun - 77.3 avg (hi/lo)
Jul - 83.3
Aug - 79.5
AVG - 80.03 degrees

Therefore, this summer in Louisville is on track to be about the 3rd or 4th hottest on record. However, termperatures are expected to cool down somewhat over the next several days.

My own projection shows Louisville's summer of 2011 will go down as possibly the 4th or 5th hottest summer of all time.

Next, as for precip, as of yesterday, Aug 23, we had surpassed 47" for the year, nearly 16.5" above normal. In fact, according to the latest 1981-2010 normals, we should average about 45" in an entire year.

Louisville needs to surpass 56.31" to claim a spot in the top ten wettest years on record.

MS

UPDATE Irene's a Major Hurricane

11:00am UPDATE is out...
Irene still at 115 mph
Speeding up...12 mph NW
956mb and falling, means intensification likely
In fact, expected to be Cat-4 within the next 24-36 hours.
Some weakening expected when it approaches US coastline.
Forecasts keep Irene offshore of US mainland.
Updated forecast below...


As of this morning, Irene has now been classified as a major hurricane with sustained winds estimated at least 111 mph for major hurricane status. The official estimate is 115 mph for this report.

At 11:00am edt, I have the latest coordinates pegged at 22.4N by 73.9W. It is passing by the Acklins Island at this time. The next islands that will be grossly impacted appears to be San Salvador Island and Cat Island. I say 'grossly' because several of the islands are experiencing at least tropical storm force winds.

The center of Irene is moving along a trajectory that will put it between San Salvador island and Cat Island, favoring San Salvador island and nearby Rum Cay

Irene is located...as of 11:00 am edt
about 120 miles sse of San Salvador island
about 110 miles se of Rum Cay
about 175 miles se of Cat Island

At the current speed and allowing for some fluctuation in forward speed, Irene's eye should be located near or just west of San Salvador island in the next 10-14 hours from the 11:00 am reference location.



MS

IRENE Latest Updates

11:00am edt UPDATE
Looking ahead???

See LIVE...a beach at the Turks and Caicos islands.
http://www.theregentgrandresort.com/regentwebcam.html

Grand Turk Island
http://www.grandturkcc.com/webcam.aspx

The most recent information is about to be updated by the NHC shortly. In the meantime, looking at the latest satellite imagery, I'm looking at a healthy hurricane, which in all likelihood favors further strengthening over the coming days. You can see the clouds fanning out in all directions from the center. That means the system is 'breathing well', venting out the clouds while sucking in the more warm, moist tropical waters of the Caribbean. Not good news for the Bahamas.

The Turks and Caicos look to be hit pretty hard from this system. It's also slowing down; therefore, the effects of rain and wind will be prolonged. Expect major damage here as the Turks and Caicos should be near the right-front quadrant (the most dangerous location of a land-approaching hurricane).

Ok, the latest information is now coming in here at 10:50am edt...
Hurricane Warning for Turks and Caicos islands, much of the SE, central, and NW Bahamas.
100mph winds with higher gusts
Pressure has risen slightly to 980mb from previous report (978mb)
Forward speed has increased slightly to 12mph.
Coordinates are 20.5N by 71.0W

According to my Excel Hurricane Tracker, this puts Irene a little less than 100 miles from the Turks and Caicos, though Grand Turk island would feel the effects sooner.

MS

Track Irene Here

Using my Excel Hurricane Tracker and the coordinates provided by the National Hurricane Center, I'm tracking Irene as she traverses the Carribean and Atlantic.

At this time, the storm is leaving Puerto Rico and making some impact on the Dominican Republic. Only about 55 mi. from Punta Cana and 160 mi NNE of Puerto Plata, it appears that Irene will stay offshore and should gradually strengthen further.

The path places Irene on a path toward the Bahamas. One of the first locations that could be impacted is Little Inagua, about 350 mi or the Turks and Caicos, about 290 mi to the northwest of Irene.

Possible hurricane conditions expected in about 24-30 hours at these locations.


















We'll have to wait and see, but looks like to me, the projected path of Irene may need to be shifted EAST somewhat. This would eventually take Irene a little farther from the Florida mainland in the days to come.

MS

BP Gas Station Fire in St Augustine

***BREAKING NEWS***
Gas tanker fire and explosion at BP gas station in St Augustine, Florida.
At least one person has suffered 3rd degree burns.
Florida SR 16 between US 1 and Varella Ave. is shut down.

Click HERE for the latest...

MS

Rain For Saturday???

Our first weekend since school has started for kiddos looks to bring copious amounts of rain for some. The HPC's recent 3-day QPF map shows about 1.00 - 1.25" for Louisville. 1-2" is expected across parts of southern and central Indiana.

The GEM is showing a stripe of heavy rain showing up over parts of central Indiana stretching over to Dayton OH. Indications are showing up to 2.50" in spots, mainly from late Friday thru part of Saturday. So far, no widespread flash flooding is expected, but slower moving storms will deposit quite a bit of rain over a short period of time.

As for severe weather, no widespread events are expected.

MS

Water Main Breaks...Not Just Here in Louisville

I thought the city of Louisville was having a bad year regarding water main break issues. Houston, on the other hand, is 'drowning' in some 700 water main breaks currently. Rationing of water for residents there.The high heat accompanied by an outdated infrastructure are the primary causes of the breaks.
Just click WATER for more information.

MS

Looking For Waterspouts

The only tornado warning in the U.S. as of 10:30am were reports of waterspouts moving onshore near Wilmington NC.

I was tracking this one a little bit ago.
http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php

MS

What Happened On This Date, August 18?

1926 - A weather map was televised for the first time. It was sent from NAA Arlington to the Weather Bureau Office in Washington.

1983 - 22 people were killed and over $1 billion in damage was caused when hurricane Alicia hit the Texas coast.

....And don't forget this month is Family Fun Month. Why not go out to the opening day of the Kentucky State Fair and have a little fun. If you can't make it to the first day, you got plenty of time to plan and attend so as to enjoy the music, rides, exhibits, and hmmm, seems like I'm forgetting something...ok, just kidding, the FOOD!

Here's the 'official' site for events, schedule, etc...Click MORE for the info.
MS

Yuma AZ #1 Hottest City in America

All of this talk about Dallas and its impressive streak (that recently ended) of 100-degree days has led us to forget about the consistent winners year in and year out.

For example, Yuma AZ has quietly amassed 68 consecutive days at or above 100 degrees (according to my count...which has been known to be wrong on occasion).

I found this interesting article from a July 10 edition of the Yuma Sun newspaper.
Click HERE for the article...Highlights include Yuma being ranked the #1 hottest city in America where population is greater than 50,000.

While researching the data, I uncovered a Louisville, KY native, Joey Norton, who is a meteorologist at KSWT-13, a CBS news station.
For more about Mr Norton, click here


And...not trying to compare apples to apples here, I thought this was a nice touch. Meet Radar the weather dog. He helps the crew at the KSWT weather office.


Read more about him from the same site as Mr Norton's.

MS

Outage Info 7:00am UPDATE

Progress is being made as less than 32,000 now are still without power in Jefferson county. I was able to pinpoint some of the areas with the greatest concentration of outages.

The 40205, 40207, and 40220 zip codes are most affected, combining for some 15,000 total outages.

Locations include St Matthews, the Highlands, and Taylorsville Rd area at Six Mile Ln.

These locations are clustered near one another on the LGE grid, so look for many to be brought back online during the day today. However, be mindful that several power poles may still need to be installed, and this could slow some progress. But crews are being added and the work should move along nicely.

MS

Brief Shower Possible This Evening

Well, we've enjoyed a nice day. However, with the heating taking place at the surface and the cooler air aloft has led to some convective activity in the form of showers. Shouldn't be too bad. They will be brief. Nice cool night in store for us, though.

MS

Storm and Outage Update

Yesterday's storms packed a wallop. A small but potent storm began peaking just as it slammed into the Louisville Metro, area including our friends just across the river in Floyd, Clark, and Harrison counties.

Several reliable sources of wind gusts from 60-70mph were reported. I was trying to keep up with all the reports of wires down in the area. I could tell the dispatcher was even laboring as a flood of reports kept coming in.

In addition, I followed a severe storm in the Indianapolis area last evening and stumbled upon a horrible happening when a stage and rigging collapsed on scores of people below at a concert at the state fair. High winds sounds like the major culprit. As of this post, 4 people have died and dozens have been injured.

As far as power outages, here is a most recent list...
In Kentucky: (8:00am)
LGE/KU total outages 83,000
Jefferson county 75,000
Scott county 3,000
Oldham county 2,200
Fayette county 1,300

In Indiana:
Duke Energy total outages for Indiana 12,600
Clark county 6,200
Floyd county 5,550

MS

Severe Storm UPDATE and Summary

9:30pm UPDATE...
BREAKING NEWS
Does not sound weather-related,(CORRECTION/) High winds may have played a role, there has been a stage collapse at the Indiana state fair. Several injuries.
Click HERE for more details.
------------------------------
At 9:00pm, still getting reports of trees and wires down across the state. Lexington is reporting numerous trees and wires down.

Power outage UPDATE
102,000 in Jefferson county KY Louisville
19,400 in Fayette county Lexington
7,000 in Scott county KY (nearly 40% of county)
142,000 in LGE/KU coverage area

Power outage UPDATE Indiana
Floyd county 11,800
Clark county 10,300
Harrison county 1,000
31,300 in Duke Energy coverage area for Indiana

Following Severe T'storm warning for Indy...

***BREAKING NEWS*** Sounds like something has happened at a race track or fairgrounds, cannot tell if it's weather-related. Northside of grandstand; 4 critical need to be transported. Medical triage being set up. I'll be trying to tune into local news there.

Over 430 listeners tuned in at Marion county emergency channel.

UPDATES coming soon...

MS

Severe Chances Going Up

7:15pm update
Last update for this post...over 105,000 residents without power in Jefferson county. Lots of wires down in the area. We'll be approaching dusk soon, be advised of barricades in the roadway and don't attempt to go around them!! Could be live wires.
----------------
7:00pm update
I'm hearing reports of residents going around barricades set up by police...NOT a good idea...Those barricades are set up for YOUR safety. In addition, you can be cited if violating those barricades set up.
---------------------
6:47 pm update
Tree down on occupied vehicle at Old Vaughn court??; don't know about injuries
-----------------
6:40pm update
At least 85000 in LGE coverage area out of power.
At I-64 east and west at Blankenbaker, road will be shut down for wires across road
Could become a traffic headache...
----------------
6:30pm update
over 50000 in Louisville area out of power
9828 Bluegrass pkwy in J'town trees and wires down
In Valley Station, isolated power outages; traffic light out at Stonestreet and Valley station Rd, drivers not treating it as 4-way stop.
It's becoming nearly impossible for me to keep up with all the information coming across the scanners.
Lots of wires down across J'town, St Matthews, Buechel
---------------
6:20pm update
St Matthews wires down
3800 breckinridge lane wires down, trees down across road
Shelbyville rd area; live wires on fire
Buechel area Starlight ln Trees down
SE hurstbourne pkwy wires down
------------------
6:10pm update
Up to 8700 in Shively out of power
More than 30000 in Jefferson county

-------------------------
6:05pm update
Up to 5000 out of power in Floyd county IN; over 1800 in Clark county
----------------------
6:00pm update
over 2000 without power in St Dennis in Shively
Up to 5000 in the Metro so far
Lost power momentarily at my location in Valley Station
--------------------
5:50pm update
Wires down in the Metro
In Valley Station, we lucked out so far; winds gusting to 45 mph; not much lightning
---------------------------
5:45pm update
Lake Dreamland Shively area trees down
Trees down across parts of southern Louisville
-------------------------

A bowing line is developing to our west. I will be checking police scanners shortly. This is moving toward Louisville. The environment is primed for strong storms...LI's around -9.

More later...

MS

Understanding Weather Terms...K-Index

A useful feature for predicting the likelihood of thunderstorms is a set of values called the K-Index. Typically used in upper air analyses, the table below shows a general (not 100% accurate) idea of possible thunderstorm development.

K Index	Thunderstorm Probability (%)
<15	near 0
15 � 20	20
21 �25	20 to 40
26 � 30	40 to 60
31- 35	60 to 80
36-40	80 to 90
> 40	near 100

Meteorologists use stability indices to make a quick determination of how susceptible the atmosphere is to severe weather. Along with the K-index, here is a chart of the other variables that make up the stability indices:

Stability Index	Description	Condition for Severe Weather
Lifted Index	T500 � Tparcel	<-3
K Index	(T850 � T500) + DT850 - (T700 � DT700)	�> 30
Total Totals	(T850 � TD850-2(T500)	> 48
Showalter Index	T500 � T850	<-2

Accessing the Storm Prediction Center's Website (SPC), I've noticed that they have inserted the K-Index tool along with other important parameters such as CAPE, Lifted Index (LI), Lapse Rates, wind shear profiles, and precipitable water (PW). This will help me further to analyze forecast charts and make my own prediction for my backyard, especially regarding severe weather prospects.

MS

Strong Storms Possible Saturday

Let's get to it. Here is a look at the current SPC convective outlook:

As of 4:30pm today, scattered strong to severe storms are possible throughout the day on Saturday.

Here is what NWS Louisville is saying...
"...THOUGH IT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WE CAN
DESTABILIZE...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED THEN
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUNDING PROGS AND
FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL."

And NWS Paducah says (for their region)...
"THE MAIN RISK FOR STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
ON SATURDAY AS THE AIR TRIES TO DESTABILIZE ....SHOULD HAVE DECENT WIND FLOW/SHEAR ALOFT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AS TO THE EXTENT OF HOW MUCH...IF
ANY...SEVERE STORMS OUR AREA RECEIVES WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF SOLAR INSULATION RECEIVED. THIS MAY BE INHIBITED BY
CLOUD DEBRIS AND WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT."

Doesn't sound like a widespread event, but those with outdoor interests need to 'keep an eye to the sky and your weather radio nearby'.

More updates later...
MS

Talk About Nice...

This is what we have been waiting for. Finally, a real break from the heat. With evening temps in the low 80's and dewpoints in the mid to upper 50's, what a breath of fresh air!

Although the weather pattern is changing, don't think the weather is going to be a bed of roses. Rain chances will be going up during the next several days.

Speaking of rain chances, check out the HPC's forecast for parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas:
This is for Days 1-2

I hope they get some relief...

Dallas has now reached 100 degrees for 40 consecutive days. The record is 42. There is a slight chance that the record streak of 42 consecutive days at or above 100 may stay intact. We will have to wait and see. The forecast for Friday, which would tie the record, has the high temperature at 100 even.

Greatest Consecutive
Rank	# of Days	Dates
1	42	Jun 23 - Aug 3, 1980
2	40	Jul 2 - Aug 10, 2011 *
3	29	Jul 6 - Aug 3, 1998
4	25	Aug 2-26, 1952
5	24	Jul 28 - Aug 20, 1999
6	20	Jul 9-28, 1954
7	19	Aug 8-26, 2006
8 (tie)	18	Jul 31 - Aug 17, 2010
	18	Jul 2-19, 1978
10	17	Aug 2-18, 1956

* still active

Do you want the record or the rain? I think it would be just lousy if they got neither.

MS

"If Birds Fly Low, Then Rain We Shall Know"

There is a famous weather folklore saying that's a decent predictor of possibly adverse weather. "If birds fly low, then rain we shall know."

Often times when the barometric readings are low or are falling, birds tend to fly lower to the ground, possibly seeking out insects that are hanging near the ground for the same barometric reasoning.

Well, last hour, my barometer read 29.73". That's fairly low considering how nice the weather seems outside at present.

And by the way, while I was out driving today, birds were swooping low and almost crashed into my windshield. It was so close, I was bracing for a thud but didn't hear anything.

Anyway, that's another indicator of a possible rain later. We'll see.

MS

Rain Possible Tonight...

We've experienced a pretty nice day. Still warm but much more tolerable than recent days. Dewpoint readings have been tolerable today. We'll notice a bigger difference by morning.

With that dewpoint improvement coming soon, all of my favored models are pointing out that some light precipitation could break out later this evening and overnight. I say light because there should be an overall weakening trend of any storms that develop this afternoon and lose their punch after the sun goes down.

Here's what the HPC says...(this should change)

I'm actually forecasting nothing more than clouds and a few sprinkles/drizzle at best. Nothing as far as I can tell that will be of any consequence.

However, during the day on Wednesday, refreshing breezes will usher in our most comfortable weather of the rapidly ending summer season.

Looking forward to that.

MS

Tsunami Collides With Iceberg

Look at what happened when a tsunami collides with an iceberg. Very interesting satellite footage.
See Article

MS

Severe Storms in Illinois

I decided to briefly follow this possibly tornadic cell just north of Peoria IL. So far, listening to spotters in the field, no rotation has been observed. Heavy rain is occurring.. At 6:15cdt, Putnam county has been cleared of Severe Thunderstorm warning.

Lincoln IL is reporting trees down, primarily on private property.

I like their arrangement. Teams of spotters each reporting on conditions at their locations. Fire depts and other emergency services participated in the 'spotting', working in conjunction with other spotters in the field over a police scanner frequency for emergency services.

I wonder if we have anything like that here in Louisville? I haven't seen the service used over police scanner frequencies if it exists..

It is now close to 6:30pm cdt, many spotters, at least with the fire depts are 'standing down', I guess heading back to the station.

Strong Storms Pushing Through Area

2:40pm UPDATE
T'storm Warning for NW Harrison county IN for a quick burst of possibly damaging winds
-------------------------

2:00pm UPDATE
Wires down across Outer Loop; don't know intersection yet.

-------------------------------
At 1:30pm, a line of strong storms has developed in this steamy airmass. Most of Louisville should see some heavy rain along with dangerous lightning and winds from 30-40 mph. It was actually quite gusty here in Valley Station a few minutes ago, around 40 mph. We just picked up a quick 0.25".

More updates as needed...

MS

Kansas City Severe Storms

Trees and power lines down according to police scanners across parts of the KC metro area after severe storms roll through the area. Some trees are on live power lines. Some power lines arcing. Some trees are on fire. Dangerous situation! Public works are trying to get to those locations and several locations likewise.

MS

Noisy Storms Along With Heavy Rain

5:20am
As of this report, Duke Energy is reporting outages along Scott/Clark counties line, Floyd, and Crawford. Not a large number, but several hundred residents affected, probably due to lightning.
-----------------------------
5:00am
Heavy rain across Louisville, primarily along and north of I-64. Lightning has been an issue as well.
Within the past few minutes, a Southern Indiana dispatch office apparently took a lightning hit. Power is available, but dispatcher seems to think odor resembles burnt wiring; therefore, Scottsburg fire dept will check things out.

Otherwise, rainfall estimates of 1-2" have fallen across these areas of southern Indiana and Louisville.

MS

The Hottest of the Hot

Check out these temps so far this month of August for selected 'hot' cities.
Average High/Low/Month Average format

Yuma AZ  112.0 / 86.6 / 99.3
Dallas (Exec) TX 109.0 / 85.8 / 97.4
Tulsa (Int'l) OK 110.2 /84.2 / 97.2
Wichita Falls TX 110.0 / 84.4 / 97.2
Phoenix AZ 109.2 / 84.8 / 97.0

MS

Record Still In Jeopardy

In a previous post, I wondered if we hit 90 degrees on Friday. It turned out we briefly touched the 90 degree mark. So, the streak continues at 20. However, today may even be more hard-pressed to touch that mark.

As of 11:30am, a weaking line of showers was approaching the Louisville area from the west. Heavier, steadier showers look to stay south of the Metro. More importantly, cloud cover will be tough to erode. With temperatures in the low 80's and expected to fall a few degrees with any onset of precipitation, I'm not expecting a bounce in readings until after 2:00pm.

My forecast chart, admittedly NOT professional, shows our temps dipping into the upper 70's to near 80. Then rebounding to a high of 88 IF we have the clouds and sun mixture. If we do get enough clearing, then 90 looks reasonable, but again, like yesterday, barely.

MS

No Record???

Did we hit 90 today? If we did, it was barely. It may not be official, but I haven't seen an official  90 degrees today at the Louisville Int'l airport. That would break the string of consecutive days at or above the 90 degree mark. Remember, the record was 22 consecutive days. Could the record for consecutive days above 90 stop at 19?....Stay tuned.

MS

Microburst For Valley Station

Looking at the radar, one wouldn't think too much about the storm cell over my area. Sure, there is heavy rain and lots of lightning.

But I couldn't get over how localized the storm was. That actual cell was made up of several smaller cells within the main cell, each one with its own power.

At my house, we had a brief gust of 50 mph winds and lots of lightning and rain. Possibly one of those wet microbursts. A little over a half-inch of rain. Yet, two miles away at my parents' home, streets were submerged, hail up to pennies was falling, and intense lightning. I would say 1-2" had fallen within a 2-mile radius there.

MS

Joining The 100-Degree Club...

Let's add Bowling Green and Hopkinsville to our growing list of 100-degree inductees. During the past couple of hours, Bowling Green hit 100 while Hopkinsville has reached 102. Nashville TN has hit the 100 degree mark now for the second time this summer.

The cold front is still lurking just north of the Ohio River. Therefore, with the atmosphere so juicy, cannot rule out an isolated storm near Louisville with better chances further south.

Keep cool. Heat index last hour at Louisville was 108! No official heat advisory though as we haven't met the 'time' qualification, I guess? I don't know but our heat index may touch 110 before the front passes.

MS

Emily On the Move...

Aug 3 - 4:30am UPDATE
I'm continuing to follow Emily's progress. The system has slowed some and therefore my original projection for a morning landfall near the Dominican Republic has been pushed back nearly 12 hours from my first estimate. Adding to the woes is the uncertainty of surface-based circulation and location at times. However, an overall consensus has arisen that places Emily on a path toward the vicinity of Santo Domingo as a strong tropical storm and then gets nearly shredded. Then there is the possibility of re-intensification as Emily moves more quickly to the north and northeast, thanks to the steering component of an upper level trough. Therefore, it's looking more and more likely that Florida will just see some wave action and not any other serious effects as this tropical system passes by to the east.
------------------------------
11:00am UPDATE
Growing pains? Since my last report, Emily has been having issues trying to get herself together. The NHC is even having difficulty keeping up where the center of circulation is presently. Although the most recent satellite imagery shows a little better effort at reorganizing, there is that bit of dry air poised just north and could hamper short-term development. Until a certain fix on the center of circulation is made, the coordinates from the NHC are not reliable. I find it hard to believe that a tropical system can go from 14mph to stationary in a matter of a few hours. We'll see if Emily can give us a better look for the next report as more convection will be readily available.
---------------------------------------------
The Dominican Republic appears to be next in line to receive the full brunt of a possibly strong tropical storm Emily. Latest coordinates I saw from the NHC was 15.5N and 63.5W. I calculated this to be about 520 miles southeast of Azua moving west-northwest at about 17mph. Other locations include...
Santo Domingo 460 miles SE.

Depending on how much dry air Emily sucks in, winds could ramp up to 60-70mph before impacting land, somewhere between Azua and Santo Domingo, within the next 27-33 hours (5:00am - 11:00am edt Wed).

Looks like Puerto Rico could receive a glancing blow from Emily's effects.

Click HERE for your downloadable and printable tracking map and follow Emily's progress.

Updates later this morning from this post...

MS

Tropical Storm Emily - It's "Official"

Well, it's about time. Emily finally decided to show up. After several peeks and pokes at some surface-based circulation over the Atlantic and Carribean waters, this tropical wave has now been upgraded.

Hopefully, those along the windward and leeward islands treated this as a tropical storm threat despite no "official" watches or warnings. Because now, Emily is bearing down on areas near Dominica and moving west-northwest at a pretty healthy clip.

Get out your tracking tools! This system looks to affect several land areas.


















This appears to be an accurate depiction of what could happen over the next several days. Hopefully, Emily won't reach hurricane status before slamming into the Dominican Republic and Haiti. However, look out Miami and Fort Lauderdale FL.

MS