I'm continuing to follow Emily's progress. The system has slowed some and therefore my original projection for a morning landfall near the Dominican Republic has been pushed back nearly 12 hours from my first estimate. Adding to the woes is the uncertainty of surface-based circulation and location at times. However, an overall consensus has arisen that places Emily on a path toward the vicinity of Santo Domingo as a strong tropical storm and then gets nearly shredded. Then there is the possibility of re-intensification as Emily moves more quickly to the north and northeast, thanks to the steering component of an upper level trough. Therefore, it's looking more and more likely that Florida will just see some wave action and not any other serious effects as this tropical system passes by to the east.
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11:00am UPDATE
Growing pains? Since my last report, Emily has been having issues trying to get herself together. The NHC is even having difficulty keeping up where the center of circulation is presently. Although the most recent satellite imagery shows a little better effort at reorganizing, there is that bit of dry air poised just north and could hamper short-term development. Until a certain fix on the center of circulation is made, the coordinates from the NHC are not reliable. I find it hard to believe that a tropical system can go from 14mph to stationary in a matter of a few hours. We'll see if Emily can give us a better look for the next report as more convection will be readily available.
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The Dominican Republic appears to be next in line to receive the full brunt of a possibly strong tropical storm Emily. Latest coordinates I saw from the NHC was 15.5N and 63.5W. I calculated this to be about 520 miles southeast of Azua moving west-northwest at about 17mph. Other locations include...
Santo Domingo 460 miles SE.
Depending on how much dry air Emily sucks in, winds could ramp up to 60-70mph before impacting land, somewhere between Azua and Santo Domingo, within the next 27-33 hours (5:00am - 11:00am edt Wed).
Looks like Puerto Rico could receive a glancing blow from Emily's effects.
Click HERE for your downloadable and printable tracking map and follow Emily's progress.
Updates later this morning from this post...
MS
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