Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Irene Has A New Eyewall


6:00pm UPDATE
During this post, I noted that there was a hint of a westerly jog in Irene's movement. The NHC, as expected, has noticed it too. Some other models are picking up on this as well. Still, quite a bit of uncertaintly 4-5 days out...but here's the latest...
THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

While the models keep Irene offshore, they make it more interesting and too close for comfort. Regardless of where Irene chooses to go, its impacts will be felt across a large chunk of the East coast. Expect major beach erosion, coastal flooding, lots of rain on top of recently softened grounds, and perhaps damaging winds. A possible New England landfall is not out of the question.

In my Miks Piks section of the blog, I will be posting various links to news stations, web cams, and police scanners.
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As is customary for healthy hurricanes, they generally undergo an eyewall replacement stage periodically. Surprisingly to me, a westward jog occurred. We'll need to monitor the progress or trend. But at first sight, it appears that Irene has taken a little more westerly jog during the last report.

The NHC will have more to say about this during their 5:00pm report.

This is a huge storm and continues to strengthen, now at 120mph, or 954mb.

For Cat 3 storm information, here is what the Saffir-Simpson Scale says...
Central Pressure:  945 - 964mb; 27.9 - 28.5"
Winds: 111-130 mph
Damage: Extensive

MS

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