STORMCON Index

Severe weather with summer foliage is now over. Yes, some trees are still carrying much foliage. However, most trees are thinning enough that strong to severe thunderstorms affect them a little bit differently.

During late spring and summer, my SQUALCON Index made concessions for wind damage to trees and limbs even when thunderstorm or non-thunderstorm winds would not reach severe criteria greater than 58 mph.

The STORMCON Index is a similar program I am using to assess the possibility of wind damage during the months of November through April. I will rank the numbers similarly to the SPC's relatively new convective outlook definitions applying to the risk of severe thunderstorms.  Yet, it's just a little bit different.

For example, Arkansas is within a broad shading of 'slight' risk for severe weather. However, I have an area of western and central Arkansas in a high-end enhanced risk for wind damage.

For Kentucky, primarily along and west of Interstate 75, I have this region assigned to a slight risk, whereas SPC has slight risk confined to western Kentucky. I base my numbers on the potential for tree and limb damage resulting from strong to severe thunderstorm or non-thunderstorm winds.

MS

MikJournal Monday10/26/15

Don't put the rain gear away just yet. After a dry Sunday and mostly dry Monday, rain moves back into the region along with gusty winds, thanks in part to the leftover remnants of Patricia.

Right now, forecast amounts from the WPC include a general 1.50 - 3.00", mainly along and west of Interstate 65. However, everyone will see the rain, but the heavier amounts for the western part of the state will really put a dent in the drought department.

The map above shows an extended area of moderate drought status that is affecting western Kentucky. No doubt the rainfall will be very welcome.

However, over the weekend, some places along the Gulf Coast and in parts of Texas got more than a drought buster. They got closed roads due to high water issues and rising rivers. Here are some numbers updated early this morning for the past 48 hours...

In Harris County, representing the Houston area...

10.71" at US 59 and Jefferson
9.12" Reliant Park

In Brazoria County, just south of Houston including Pearland and Lake Jackson...

8.94" near Needville

In Matagorda County, southwest along coast from Houston...

9.47" near Markham
7.67" Bay City

Along with the heavy rain came a lot of wind with common reports of 30-50 mph.

On this day in 2011 and 1976 in the Denver area, snowfall amounts of 8.5" and 7.2" respectively were reported at Stapleton airport. Almost 20" fell in the front range and foothills near Jamestown in 2011 along with an 8.5" report coming in from Louisville...between Denver and Boulder (map of Louisville)

Later this week, our eyes will turn toward the west as a cut-off low is expected to wreak havoc on computer forecast models for this weekend's activities. Right now, I do not expect rain chances to increase here until some time late on Sunday into Sunday night at the earliest. I make this assumption based on reports from NWS offices coming out of Arizona and New Mexico.

Have a good week.
MS

Mexico's Jalisco and Colima Not a Stranger to Natural Disasters

Along the west coast of Mexico are two of its states, Jalisco and Colima, both who have experienced historical natural disasters in the past.

The 1932 earthquake measured 8.1 and generated a tsunami along with an aftershock that produced an even more damaging tsunami several days later. Hundreds of deaths were attributed to the month long series of devastating tremors.

The 1959 hurricane packed winds of 160 mph as it slammed ashore, yes, a Category 5 hurricane, closing in on the same general areas that Patricia will be impacting. Over 1,800 deaths made this event the deadliest eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Ironically, landfall occurred in late October, eerily similar to Patricia's eventual predicted landfall.

MS

More El Nino Hints

A rather interesting reveal occurred recently. Lately, we have been talking about the El Nino phenomena and its potential effects on North American winter weather, you know, warmer than average for much of the northern States. But, we have not had a major El Nino during the recent age of Arctic sea ice minimums, which 2015 just reached its 4th lowest minimum during September.

However, for the last two years, we have been locked in a persistent pattern thanks in part to what has been going on in the Arctic region. Warmer than average readings in the Chukchi and East Siberian seas has been strongly correlated to the winter cold outbreaks of the past two years along the eastern part of the U.S. These readings are still demonstrating above average tendencies despite some earlier than expected icing ongoing in parts of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, locations along and east of the Bering sea that separates Russia from Alaska.

According to climatologists and other atmospheric experts, though, they do not seem too concerned with the effects of this 'small' issue going forward into the winter months. After all, El Nino is a global player, and Arctic sea ice minimum is just a piece of the complex and often chaotic processes that may or may not affect our upcoming winter. Yet, El Nino must be an easily explainable event, as I have seen numerous forecasts suggesting the same 'leftovers' from previous El Nino events regarding the associated temperature/precipitation graphics.

I say do not be surprised if El Nino's influence enhances the Arctic's effects on our region, causing wide swings in the Polar Jet or the northern branch of the jet stream. It is already forecast that the southern subtropical jet will be quite active this late fall and winter. And if these two get together, watch out.

More hints later...

MS

Historic Hurricane to Hit Western Mexican Coast

Perhaps the strongest hurricane to ever affect any mainland is poised to strike the western Mexican coast near Puerta Vallerta. At 880mb estimated pressure, Patricia could go down as the lowest barometric pressure for any storm, at least as it relates to the central, east, and north Pacific. 200 mph winds are the accurately-estimated surface wind observations from the hurricane hunters, no doubt gusts are exceeding these values.

You might ask what is the highest wind ever recorded on earth? Not counting tornadoes, at one time, the Mount Washington Observatory on top of Mount Washington, New Hampshire recorded a wind gust of 231 mph, making it a world record...until April 10, 1996 and the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Olivia that hit Barrow Island, Australia with a 253 mph gust.

It is possible that if there are instruments in place that are within acceptable standards for measuring the wind speed, gusts of over 225 mph and higher could be achieved.

A frontal system will tap into this tropical moisture and affect much real estate in the southern United States. Even our weather in Kentucky will be affected by this event.

Another potent tropical system that is curving away from Hawaii may channel moisture into the western United States later next week, one of the hints that I have been looking for related to El Nino. More updates on the hints in my next post.

MS

MikJournal Monday 10/19/15

First, let me say that despite the cold, look out toward the eastern sky a little after 6:00 a.m., a beautiful view of Venus (the bright one) and Jupiter sharing the same part of the sky. Actually, Mars is right there also. I took my binoculars and was able to locate the unmistakable red dot just to the left and slightly down from Jupiter.

I love cold, crisp, calm, and starry mornings. Yesterday's 30 degrees at my house along with a current temperature at 6:00 this morning of 33 is almost ideal when it comes to mid-Fall, at least for the morning. Of course, winter's ideal cold is when the temperature is between 25 and 28, very light wind, and snow falling. It just seems warmer to me when snow is falling, perhaps because the dew point is closer to the air temperature.

Anyway, October and November are really excellent times to take in the night sky. If you like meteor showers, look for the Orionids peaking during the early morning hours and just before dawn this Thursday October 22. The Leonids in November are a pretty good show too, around the 17th or 18th of that month.

I provided a link of what to expect for this year's late night shows here.

A fairly tranquil week ahead with wonderful fall temperatures. I'm planning on a few hiking excursions to take in some of the fall foliage. I must say that this is my favorite time of the year.

MS

Drought and Frost Update

No maps for this post. But, moderate drought has resurfaced, this time over western Kentucky. Paducah has only seen 2.99" since August 1. Louisville is no longer in any drought or pre-drought condition. I have seen 2.67" this month while Louisville International has had 1.41".

Both Euro and NAM are in agreement about Sunday morning temperatures so far. Louisville heat island may keep temperatures from bottoming out below 37 degrees. However, locations outside the airport will drop off quickly. At my house, I am predicting 31-32 degrees.

Locations in the bluegrass could see a damaging freeze even. Some typical cold areas like Cynthiana may tumble into the mid and upper 20's. Frankfort 31 degrees. Don't be surprised if Lexington Mesonet site is at least 2-3 degrees warmer than the bluegrass airport like say 34 or 35 degrees. It's time to calibrate something on that equipment.

MS