More El Nino Hints

A rather interesting reveal occurred recently. Lately, we have been talking about the El Nino phenomena and its potential effects on North American winter weather, you know, warmer than average for much of the northern States. But, we have not had a major El Nino during the recent age of Arctic sea ice minimums, which 2015 just reached its 4th lowest minimum during September.

However, for the last two years, we have been locked in a persistent pattern thanks in part to what has been going on in the Arctic region. Warmer than average readings in the Chukchi and East Siberian seas has been strongly correlated to the winter cold outbreaks of the past two years along the eastern part of the U.S. These readings are still demonstrating above average tendencies despite some earlier than expected icing ongoing in parts of the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, locations along and east of the Bering sea that separates Russia from Alaska.

According to climatologists and other atmospheric experts, though, they do not seem too concerned with the effects of this 'small' issue going forward into the winter months. After all, El Nino is a global player, and Arctic sea ice minimum is just a piece of the complex and often chaotic processes that may or may not affect our upcoming winter. Yet, El Nino must be an easily explainable event, as I have seen numerous forecasts suggesting the same 'leftovers' from previous El Nino events regarding the associated temperature/precipitation graphics.

I say do not be surprised if El Nino's influence enhances the Arctic's effects on our region, causing wide swings in the Polar Jet or the northern branch of the jet stream. It is already forecast that the southern subtropical jet will be quite active this late fall and winter. And if these two get together, watch out.

More hints later...

MS