MikJournal Monday 12/10/2018...Reflection Time

Good Monday to you. The latest winter storm has finally exited our region. Some, obviously not all, received a significant amount of freezing rain, sleet, and snow over the weekend. By and large, this was a difficult weather system to forecast. Let's take a moment to reflect on just what happened.

First, all computer models performed horribly. Some were better than others. The highest grade I would have given any model, well, perhaps a C+. Therefore, if you applied a curve like what we would have gotten on a college exam, well then, suddenly the grades don't look so bad, and the models did okay. Baloney!

And the forecasters who rely on these things? Well, let's just say they struggled. Admittedly, some tackled this thing head on, but, obviously, even they had no idea how it would all really work out in the end. Just spin the wheel and hope for the best.

However, one thing (of several things) that bothered me was a presentation of various computer forecast models. Pretty much by the time one showed all of the different solutions from all of the computer model runs, the entire state of Kentucky was going to be affected, which in the end was certainly not true. Therefore, if a forecaster presents all of these, even if the likelihood of it happening, was miniscule, the forecaster should be blamed for including this in any presentation for his forecast that causes ambiguity and confuses his audience .

It takes a certain skillset to present ONLY the models that make the most sense to the forecaster. No need to present 'outliers' unless the forecaster feels strongly that the outlier should be included based on a summarized, persuasive explanation supporting his argument(s). Otherwise, any inclusion of additional, possibly irrelevant data could cause confusion and actually show a lack of competence on the part of the forecaster. I have seen it happen when a forecaster puts out all of these computer models actually takes credit for including the one least likely to happen, even though it was not part of his/her original suite of forecast models supporting his ongoing forecast. Yep. Just trying to cover his/her you know what.

One other thing. When precipitation types are reported, especially by the public, I cringe seemingly every time I read these things.

Freezing rain is NOT something frozen that falls from the sky. It is the same liquid rain that you see in a summertime thunderstorm. The only difference is the liquid rain that falls from the sky becomes frozen on contact with any surface that is at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degrees Celsius.

Examples of frozen precipitation that falls from the sky include graupel, or soft hail, that looks like foam balls quietly bouncing off the windshield; hail, which typically falls during a strong/severe thunderstorm and causes damage; sleet, or ice pellets, which we can easily hear bouncing off our windshields, windows, leaves in the yard, grill tops, roof tops, yeah you get it;  and good-old-fashioned snow, the most beautiful object falling from the sky.

Therefore, one cannot have freezing rain and 35 degrees. However, one can have sleet, or ice pellets, falling, and if it falls heavily, can leave a crunchy, or 'snow-cone' type of ice accumulation initially until the rate diminishes and the relatively warmer ground or object commences to melt the ice pellet.

Hopefully, for you ones who have been negatively impacted by the ice/snow accumulations, perhaps power outages, stuck at home because of blocked driveways or roadways, or even collapsed car ports, hang in there. Milder air will visit for a few days, but with additional rain chances later this week.

In conclusion, the Kentucky Mesonet site at Harlan county near the top of Black Mountain has now recorded 80.76" precipitation for 2018 as of last night.

Let's have a good week.

MS