A severe thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the Louisville Metro area. There may be enough instability to help fuel at least isolated severe thunderstorms across the area. Stay tuned to your favorite media sources for further updates.
MS
Monday, December 31, 2018
Sunday, December 30, 2018
Wettest Year Ever Watch - Louisville
***Louisville Sets Wettest Year Mark for 2nd Time This Decade***
As of 9:30 a.m. this New Year's Eve, Louisville breaks annual precipitation previously set in 2011.
-----------------------------------------------
As of this early Sunday morning, December 30, Louisville has an annual precipitation total of 67.35". The current all-time annual wettest mark is 68.02", set earlier this decade in 2011.
Rain is forecast to break out late Sunday night into Monday, New Year's Eve. Rain totals are expected to exceed the needed 0.68" to set the wettest year mark for the 2nd time this decade.
Therefore, the Wettest Year Ever Watch continues for Louisville. This page will update when Louisville sets the mark.
MS
As of 9:30 a.m. this New Year's Eve, Louisville breaks annual precipitation previously set in 2011.
-----------------------------------------------
As of this early Sunday morning, December 30, Louisville has an annual precipitation total of 67.35". The current all-time annual wettest mark is 68.02", set earlier this decade in 2011.
Rain is forecast to break out late Sunday night into Monday, New Year's Eve. Rain totals are expected to exceed the needed 0.68" to set the wettest year mark for the 2nd time this decade.
Therefore, the Wettest Year Ever Watch continues for Louisville. This page will update when Louisville sets the mark.
MS
Monday, December 24, 2018
MikJournal SPECIAL Edition 12/24/2018...The Northeast 2017/2018 Snow Season
It was a long, arduous process. Since I finally had a day off from work, I decided to dig into the numbers and wound up digging out some impressive snow totals from the previous snow season that ran from July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018.
The list may not be totally complete, since some locations had incomplete or missing data. Nevertheless, I discovered so many impressive snow amounts that I could only limit the list to those locations that reached at least 100". In fact one of the locations was one that I did not even follow and it ranked number 1.
Another location but was not included in the list for missing data was a place called Mount Mansfield in northern Vermont. A secondary resource, On the Snow (a ski report page), listed the Stowe location in its Historical Snowfall section and I calculated a total of 258" that fell during the snow season.
In addition, Mount Washington in New Hampshire, home of the world's worst weather as it is claimed, recorded 345.1", according to its F6 form listed on the Website below....
https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/monthly-f6.aspx
So, here's your list of the Northeast's 100" club....
The list may not be totally complete, since some locations had incomplete or missing data. Nevertheless, I discovered so many impressive snow amounts that I could only limit the list to those locations that reached at least 100". In fact one of the locations was one that I did not even follow and it ranked number 1.
Another location but was not included in the list for missing data was a place called Mount Mansfield in northern Vermont. A secondary resource, On the Snow (a ski report page), listed the Stowe location in its Historical Snowfall section and I calculated a total of 258" that fell during the snow season.
In addition, Mount Washington in New Hampshire, home of the world's worst weather as it is claimed, recorded 345.1", according to its F6 form listed on the Website below....
https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/monthly-f6.aspx
So, here's your list of the Northeast's 100" club....
| 387.9 | Redfield NY |
| 284.1 | Hooker NY |
| 269.7 | Perrysburg NY |
| 268.5 | Osceola NY |
| 234.0 | Springville NY |
| 217.8 | Highmarket NY |
| 203.9 | Colden NY |
| 192.5 | Pinkham Notch NH |
| 192.5 | Warsaw NY |
| 188.2 | Wyoming NY |
| 183.6 | Attica NY |
| 173.6 | Cattaraugus NY |
| 172.2 | Palermo NY |
| 166.7 | Fulton NY |
| 164.2 | Lowville NY |
| 163.5 | Pulaski NY |
| 163.5 | Peru VT |
| 163.1 | Oswego East NY |
| 159.7 | Camden NY |
| 155.6 | Laurel Summit PA |
| 153.6 | Syracuse NY |
| 152.5 | Gloversville NY |
| 151.5 | Little Valley NY |
| 149.5 | Boonville NY |
| 147.1 | Terra Alta WV |
| 145.7 | Sutton VT |
| 145.4 | Glenfield NY |
| 141.0 | Watertown NY |
| 140.9 | Chandlers Valley PA |
| 137.2 | Caribou ME |
| 134.5 | Big Moose NY |
| 132.2 | Auburn NY |
| 131.2 | Rowe MA |
| 130.9 | Wales NY |
| 130.0 | Topsfield ME |
| 129.2 | Jefferson NH |
| 126.4 | Silver Springs NY |
| 126.1 | Hartford ME |
| 126.0 | First Connecticut Lake NH |
| 126.0 | East Hawley MA |
| 125.0 | Franklinville NY |
| 124.2 | E. Surry ME |
| 123.6 | Jamestown NY |
| 123.5 | Webster NY |
| 123.3 | Fort Kent ME |
| 120.5 | Rochester NY |
| 119.5 | Snowshoe WV |
| 119.4 | Eustis ME |
| 118.5 | Rangeley 2 ME |
| 118.4 |
Gouveneur NY
|
| 117.9 | Hollis ME |
| 117.8 | Theresa NY |
| 117.7 | Rangeley ME |
| 117.5 | Walton NY |
| 117.3 | Brassua Dam ME |
| 117.0 | Malone NY |
| 116.4 | Bayard WV |
| 116.3 | Island Pond VT |
| 114.6 | Corinth VT |
| 114.5 | Fredonia NY |
| 114.5 | Portland NY |
| 114.1 | Rumford ME |
| 113.4 | York Pond NH |
| 112.3 | Buffalo NY |
| 111.9 | Rushford NY |
| 111.3 | Bangot ME |
| 111.1 | Moosehead ME |
| 110.9 | Harmony ME |
| 110.4 | Livermore Falls ME |
| 110.4 | Newcastle ME |
| 109.3 | Somerset PA |
| 107.9 | Brockport NY |
| 107.5 | Norfolk CT |
| 106.6 | Indian Lake NY |
| 104.4 | East Haven VT |
| 104.4 | Dunkirk NY |
| 101.8 | North Conway NH |
| 101.3 | Poland ME |
| 101.2 | Belfast ME |
| 101.2 | Bridgton ME |
| 101.1 | Durham ME |
| 100.8 | West Hampstead NH |
| 100.7 | Berlin NH |
| 100.1 | Windham ME |
Monday, December 10, 2018
MikJournal Monday 12/10/2018...Reflection Time
Good Monday to you. The latest winter storm has finally exited our region. Some, obviously not all, received a significant amount of freezing rain, sleet, and snow over the weekend. By and large, this was a difficult weather system to forecast. Let's take a moment to reflect on just what happened.
First, all computer models performed horribly. Some were better than others. The highest grade I would have given any model, well, perhaps a C+. Therefore, if you applied a curve like what we would have gotten on a college exam, well then, suddenly the grades don't look so bad, and the models did okay. Baloney!
And the forecasters who rely on these things? Well, let's just say they struggled. Admittedly, some tackled this thing head on, but, obviously, even they had no idea how it would all really work out in the end. Just spin the wheel and hope for the best.
However, one thing (of several things) that bothered me was a presentation of various computer forecast models. Pretty much by the time one showed all of the different solutions from all of the computer model runs, the entire state of Kentucky was going to be affected, which in the end was certainly not true. Therefore, if a forecaster presents all of these, even if the likelihood of it happening, was miniscule, the forecaster should be blamed for including this in any presentation for his forecast that causes ambiguity and confuses his audience .
It takes a certain skillset to present ONLY the models that make the most sense to the forecaster. No need to present 'outliers' unless the forecaster feels strongly that the outlier should be included based on a summarized, persuasive explanation supporting his argument(s). Otherwise, any inclusion of additional, possibly irrelevant data could cause confusion and actually show a lack of competence on the part of the forecaster. I have seen it happen when a forecaster puts out all of these computer models actually takes credit for including the one least likely to happen, even though it was not part of his/her original suite of forecast models supporting his ongoing forecast. Yep. Just trying to cover his/her you know what.
One other thing. When precipitation types are reported, especially by the public, I cringe seemingly every time I read these things.
Freezing rain is NOT something frozen that falls from the sky. It is the same liquid rain that you see in a summertime thunderstorm. The only difference is the liquid rain that falls from the sky becomes frozen on contact with any surface that is at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degrees Celsius.
Examples of frozen precipitation that falls from the sky include graupel, or soft hail, that looks like foam balls quietly bouncing off the windshield; hail, which typically falls during a strong/severe thunderstorm and causes damage; sleet, or ice pellets, which we can easily hear bouncing off our windshields, windows, leaves in the yard, grill tops, roof tops, yeah you get it; and good-old-fashioned snow, the most beautiful object falling from the sky.
Therefore, one cannot have freezing rain and 35 degrees. However, one can have sleet, or ice pellets, falling, and if it falls heavily, can leave a crunchy, or 'snow-cone' type of ice accumulation initially until the rate diminishes and the relatively warmer ground or object commences to melt the ice pellet.
Hopefully, for you ones who have been negatively impacted by the ice/snow accumulations, perhaps power outages, stuck at home because of blocked driveways or roadways, or even collapsed car ports, hang in there. Milder air will visit for a few days, but with additional rain chances later this week.
In conclusion, the Kentucky Mesonet site at Harlan county near the top of Black Mountain has now recorded 80.76" precipitation for 2018 as of last night.
Let's have a good week.
MS
First, all computer models performed horribly. Some were better than others. The highest grade I would have given any model, well, perhaps a C+. Therefore, if you applied a curve like what we would have gotten on a college exam, well then, suddenly the grades don't look so bad, and the models did okay. Baloney!
And the forecasters who rely on these things? Well, let's just say they struggled. Admittedly, some tackled this thing head on, but, obviously, even they had no idea how it would all really work out in the end. Just spin the wheel and hope for the best.
However, one thing (of several things) that bothered me was a presentation of various computer forecast models. Pretty much by the time one showed all of the different solutions from all of the computer model runs, the entire state of Kentucky was going to be affected, which in the end was certainly not true. Therefore, if a forecaster presents all of these, even if the likelihood of it happening, was miniscule, the forecaster should be blamed for including this in any presentation for his forecast that causes ambiguity and confuses his audience .
It takes a certain skillset to present ONLY the models that make the most sense to the forecaster. No need to present 'outliers' unless the forecaster feels strongly that the outlier should be included based on a summarized, persuasive explanation supporting his argument(s). Otherwise, any inclusion of additional, possibly irrelevant data could cause confusion and actually show a lack of competence on the part of the forecaster. I have seen it happen when a forecaster puts out all of these computer models actually takes credit for including the one least likely to happen, even though it was not part of his/her original suite of forecast models supporting his ongoing forecast. Yep. Just trying to cover his/her you know what.
One other thing. When precipitation types are reported, especially by the public, I cringe seemingly every time I read these things.
Freezing rain is NOT something frozen that falls from the sky. It is the same liquid rain that you see in a summertime thunderstorm. The only difference is the liquid rain that falls from the sky becomes frozen on contact with any surface that is at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degrees Celsius.
Examples of frozen precipitation that falls from the sky include graupel, or soft hail, that looks like foam balls quietly bouncing off the windshield; hail, which typically falls during a strong/severe thunderstorm and causes damage; sleet, or ice pellets, which we can easily hear bouncing off our windshields, windows, leaves in the yard, grill tops, roof tops, yeah you get it; and good-old-fashioned snow, the most beautiful object falling from the sky.
Therefore, one cannot have freezing rain and 35 degrees. However, one can have sleet, or ice pellets, falling, and if it falls heavily, can leave a crunchy, or 'snow-cone' type of ice accumulation initially until the rate diminishes and the relatively warmer ground or object commences to melt the ice pellet.
Hopefully, for you ones who have been negatively impacted by the ice/snow accumulations, perhaps power outages, stuck at home because of blocked driveways or roadways, or even collapsed car ports, hang in there. Milder air will visit for a few days, but with additional rain chances later this week.
In conclusion, the Kentucky Mesonet site at Harlan county near the top of Black Mountain has now recorded 80.76" precipitation for 2018 as of last night.
Let's have a good week.
MS
Monday, December 3, 2018
MikJournal December 2018 Outlook
As promised, I will not offer any Winter *forecast*, since it is for entertainment purposes only. Even if I was to offer a guess, believe me, it would be entertaining.
Despite the impractical side of forecasting a 3-4 month range of weather when no meteorologists can accurately forecast two weeks out, a monthly outlook can offer a more realistic and hopefully more accurate presentation despite its shortcomings or limitations.
Here's what we know. El Nino conditions are present. Often, this tropical feature found way out in the Pacific helps drive weather patterns, yes even here in the United States. But, we also have to remember that other atmospheric contributors can have more influence.
But, what we don't know is which atmospheric contributor(s) will weigh more heavily on our regional weather patterns?
I am going to post a teleconnections page here. Now, this will change nearly daily. But, pay special attention to the PNA, NAO, and the EPO....
I have heard it said that we need a PNA+, NAO-, EPO-, and an AO-, which I'll get to in just a moment, for a reasonable shot at a potent winter storm for our region.
Personally, in my observations, I prefer to see a PNA+ trending negative, NAO- trending positive, EPO- trending positive, and an AO- trending positive.
The chart above presents the mid-range players. They are still important. But, one of the main drivers of our winter patterns is the Arctic Oscillation. Here is a source that gives us an outlook for that one....
Enlarge the chart if necessary, but look at the top part of the chart, the red lines are the forecast. I like to see an AO-. Also, what I have noticed in recent years is a definitive V-shape becomes apparent that is a good indicator for winter storm/precipitation potential, one that is potentially more significant than a northwest flow of snow showers/flurries.
Look at the right side of the V. The AO should reach its most negative point (the bottom of the V), then trend toward neutral or positive. Allowing a few days or so, the cold air in place regionally should begin to have moisture entrained within the main flow, usually tapping into Pacific/Gulf of Mexico moisture. That is a good sign for a potential winter storm for our region.
However, I would still like to see the other players align a little better. As I write this, the AO is on board for a significant winter storm, but there is still alignment issues with the NAO and the EPO. These are not major alignment issues. That tells me that a part of our region may still be affected by the upcoming weather system with wintry consequences. There is still time for these issues to work out.
Looking ahead, the weather should begin to normalize toward mid-month. However, as has been the case recently, a reloading of cold air will commence and likely plunge into the region sometime after this. During the holiday week, temperatures may try to recover again with precipitation chances being introduced. Could there be snow chances? It's looking like a possibility.
Normal to below normal temperatures to end the last week of the year looks like a possibility. More precipitation chances too. But, this time it looks like a wet solution than a white one. Let's see how it works out.
MS
Despite the impractical side of forecasting a 3-4 month range of weather when no meteorologists can accurately forecast two weeks out, a monthly outlook can offer a more realistic and hopefully more accurate presentation despite its shortcomings or limitations.
Here's what we know. El Nino conditions are present. Often, this tropical feature found way out in the Pacific helps drive weather patterns, yes even here in the United States. But, we also have to remember that other atmospheric contributors can have more influence.
But, what we don't know is which atmospheric contributor(s) will weigh more heavily on our regional weather patterns?
I am going to post a teleconnections page here. Now, this will change nearly daily. But, pay special attention to the PNA, NAO, and the EPO....
I have heard it said that we need a PNA+, NAO-, EPO-, and an AO-, which I'll get to in just a moment, for a reasonable shot at a potent winter storm for our region.
Personally, in my observations, I prefer to see a PNA+ trending negative, NAO- trending positive, EPO- trending positive, and an AO- trending positive.
The chart above presents the mid-range players. They are still important. But, one of the main drivers of our winter patterns is the Arctic Oscillation. Here is a source that gives us an outlook for that one....
Enlarge the chart if necessary, but look at the top part of the chart, the red lines are the forecast. I like to see an AO-. Also, what I have noticed in recent years is a definitive V-shape becomes apparent that is a good indicator for winter storm/precipitation potential, one that is potentially more significant than a northwest flow of snow showers/flurries.
Look at the right side of the V. The AO should reach its most negative point (the bottom of the V), then trend toward neutral or positive. Allowing a few days or so, the cold air in place regionally should begin to have moisture entrained within the main flow, usually tapping into Pacific/Gulf of Mexico moisture. That is a good sign for a potential winter storm for our region.
However, I would still like to see the other players align a little better. As I write this, the AO is on board for a significant winter storm, but there is still alignment issues with the NAO and the EPO. These are not major alignment issues. That tells me that a part of our region may still be affected by the upcoming weather system with wintry consequences. There is still time for these issues to work out.
Looking ahead, the weather should begin to normalize toward mid-month. However, as has been the case recently, a reloading of cold air will commence and likely plunge into the region sometime after this. During the holiday week, temperatures may try to recover again with precipitation chances being introduced. Could there be snow chances? It's looking like a possibility.
Normal to below normal temperatures to end the last week of the year looks like a possibility. More precipitation chances too. But, this time it looks like a wet solution than a white one. Let's see how it works out.
MS
Saturday, December 1, 2018
Lexington Sets Wettest Year Ever or Since 2011
Lexington has done it again. For the second time this decade, the area has set an all-time wettest year, breaking the previous record of 66.35" set in 2011. The final tally is yet to be determined, but 70" is a realistic possibility by December 31.
MS
MS
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