MikJournal January 2016 Prediction

Welcome to a special edition of my MikJournal page. If you are not familiar with the winter page, I will be posting a monthly report for each of the winter months December, January, and February.

In Review

December 2015 was a warm one, into the record books for one of the warmest Decembers on record. Also, it was a wet month, ranking again in the top ten wettest Decembers.

El Nino has had its footprint in a few locations nationwide but did not line up with what one would normally expect from a typical El Nino. But, we are just beginning, right?

Record warmth was also noted across Florida, where below normal temperatures are expected along with above normal precipitation for the winter. It's going to take quite a reversal to offset the anomalous warmth of December.

In fact, other areas of the south that are expecting overall below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation were very balmy, even by their standards. Mobile AL, Baton Rough LA, and Houston TX averaged between 5 and 9 degrees above normal for temperatures and well above normal for precipitation.

Overall, I was pleased with my December prediction, which highlighted no Arctic outbreaks, balmy temperatures, and severe weather chances. However, I think it was a little too warm and wet than even I had anticipated. But, what about going forward into the month of January?

January Prediction

The month of January appears to offer a major dose of reality. After an unusually warm start to the winter, January is offering a plate of at least typical winter fare.

One of my biggest arguments in favor of colder air is the alignment of the teleconnections AO, NAO, EPO, and the PNA. During the month of December, the Keeper of the Cold', the AO, stubbornly refused to dip much below neutral for the entire month; therefore, the coldest air remained locked in place in the Arctic region for the most part though spilling modified Arctic air into the western U.S. However, the eastern part of the United States enjoyed warmth, the typical trough west /ridge east pattern formed by the -PNA teleconnection working in conjunction with a positive AO, NAO, and largely EPO.

Now, the PNA has reversed for the time being. +PNA, or a ridge west/trough east will be working in harmony with the reversal of the negative AO, NAO, and EPO. However, the jury is still out on how the NAO will perform over the longer time frame.

Nevertheless, transport of cold, Arctic air will be available for much of the eastern part of the United States. Any long term cold will depend on how negative the NAO can become. We need a blocking pattern near Greenland to help pave the way for the Siberian Express and keep the cold train well oiled.

Otherwise, I am expecting cold shots of Arctic or modified Arctic air to be interspersed with some nice, seasonal weather with some above average readings. Now, I am not talking about the same kind of air we had in December, so let me be clear about that.

Well, if there is going to be cold air in place, what about snow chances?

The chances are higher that we will be looking at wintry weather for January, especially in comparison with December, right?

A persistent northwest flow will at times cut off the Gulf's moisture supply. But, remember, El Nino is notorious for affecting jet streams, most notably, the southern or subtropical jet. An active southern jet working in harmony with another teleconnection called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected, especially around the middle of the month.

In fact some of the maps I have been studying show a split flow regime where the polar jet and the southern jet are separated initially but then come close enough (or phase) to form a blockbuster storm. I am predicting at least 2 of these systems for the month, primarily near and after the middle of the month.

Right now, I cannot say what the dominant air mass will be when these 2 systems approach our region. You know how it is if you live in Kentucky. It seemingly appears to be a constant battleground between the precipitation types. There are 3 scenarios I foresee if these systems do try and phase the two jet streams.

First, cold air in place, phasing just west: This would not be good. Cold air with overrunning warm air can only spell trouble for the region, ice to rain back to rain/snow and all snow.

Second, mild air in place with low pressure tracking nearby or phasing just north: A rain or rain/snow mix transitioning to all snow after frontal passage.

Third, cold air in place, phase just south: This would result in greatest snow chances for our region but perhaps a bad ice storm for parts of the unprepared south.

Unfortunately, due to El Nino's warm influence and an indecisive NAO, I cannot fully support #3 at this time.

Therefore, I am leaning more toward the second solution, mild air in place with a rain or rain/snow mix transitioning to rain then rapidly changing to all snow after cold air infiltration with some accumulations..

I am not saying that if both systems do evolve, they will be twins of one another thereby producing the same kind of weather for the region. I do expect one system to offer a warmer solution than the other.

Now, if the NAO can stay mostly negative, that could alter this forecast. The second solution above still looks good though, because we do not want a phasing to occur too far south or else our region will mostly miss out on the biggest snows. However, it is more probable for parts of the state (south to southeast) to see significant snowfall than the northern half.

Conclusion:

January's temperatures should range between near normal to below normal, despite what the CPC says about an above normal temperature pattern.

Precipitation will depend on types. Right now, I am leaning toward below normal, no matter what types of precipitation we have. A colder air mass will yield much below normal precipitation while a milder air mass will yield a better result though still below normal.

MS