Projection Time: Louisville's Winter Temperatures

Ok. Try and follow me here. The logic and numbers may seem distorted, so you might need a pencil and paper to help. Remember, though, these are just projections, not anything set in stone.

My winter outlook simply says that Louisville and surrounding region would be milder than the previous two winters.

In Louisville, the last two winters of December through February averaged at least 3 degrees below normal. Right now, or as of December 14, Louisville is averaging over 10 degrees above normal.

Today and tomorrow we should see readings at least 10 degrees above normal. Even though below normal temperatures are expected for 2 or 3 days later this week, we're only talking about 3-4, 5 degrees maximum of below normal values. Then, we go right back up from there, averaging more than 5 degrees above normal for a stretch of a few days.

As you can see, I am highlighting more higher 'above normal' readings than 'below normal' readings. In other words, we don't have 10 degrees above normal one day and 10 degrees below normal the next day. But, we might have days of 10 and 12 degrees above normal versus a couple of days of 4 or 5 degrees below normal. The 10 and 12 quite simply overwhelm the 4 or 5  so that the average remains above normal.

Now, for the sake of argument, let's assume that after today and tomorrow with double-digit temperatures above normal, the rest of the month, every day, the high temperature and low temperature met its normal value. What would be the result?

December would still finish 5-6 degrees above normal, not too far from top ten warmest Decembers on record status.

That means January and February would need to average about 8 degrees below normal per month for my outlook to be wrong.

I guess it could still happen, but I am already expecting a concession speech from Old Man Winter already.

MS