Analogs Favor Severe Weather

UPDATE 7:00pm edt
Finally received confirmation of a 93 mph gust and tree damage around the Mesonet site near Bowling Green. I say it was a brief spinup or an awesome microburst. I would hope NWS investigates the damage because there was rotation before the storm hit the area and there was large hail just north of the site.
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UPDATE 4:55pm edt
Strong and severe thunderstorms approaching Louisville. Expect winds of 35-45 mph on average.

No confirmation on 92mph wind gust near Bowling Green. Did get reports of 1" hail. Unless there was a brief spinup, that gust could be an error.
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UPDATE 4:25pm edt
92 mph wind gust from Mesonet site from Warren County near Bowling Green. Waiting for confirmation.
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As part of my tool pack for the SQUALCON Index, I use the top 15 analogs, find the 5 closest ones that fit our region and average them out by rank.

Lately, our region has been averaging about 9.0 or a little higher. If we had the top 5 analogs in our region, you would add 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and the sum would be 15. Divide that by 5 and get an average of 3, which is the most bullish scenario for severe weather coverage. So, 9.0 is somewhat low.

However, my latest calculations have Kentucky in the crosshairs for severe weather in 5 of the top 7 analogs for an average of 4.8.

This is a very bullish sign for widespread severe weather. As long as the atmosphere does not get worked over too much from earlier convection, we are primed for a severe weather episode that includes the whole arsenal of damaging storms, yes, including tornadoes.

MS