SQUALCON Watch

UPDATE 4:00PM
Dewpoint reading at my house is running between 72 and 73 degrees...parts of western KY coming in at 77 degrees. Ick! Heat index in Bowling Green at 102 according to Mesonet site.
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UPDATE 2:30PM
Cloud cover limiting convective potential near Louisville...Short-range models are in pretty good agreement that only scattered coverage of storms will be with us this afternoon. Tonight, around or after 11pm edt, storms will begin impacting the region from the west-northwest. Heavy rain potential exists along with lightning chances and high winds. Cannot tell if severe potential will be favorable, but since storms will be most prevalent after dark, only an MCS type storm may be able to generate enough umph to bring about isolated severe reports. Otherwise, heavy thunderstorms look to be the case.
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UPDATE 11:00AM
SPC downgrades severe risk to slight for today...now includes slight risk for Louisville on Friday. I am still keeping my SQUALCON Index heightened today/night, only shaving off a miniscule amount at 3.6 for the region with Louisville at the center of the region. I will include numbers for Friday later tonight.
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It's still several hours away, but residents should prepare for a potential damaging wind threat. SPC places parts of the region of north central Kentucky in an enhanced risk for severe weather.

In addition, while analogs do not support a widespread severe weather outbreak, I have calculated an average number of 9.0 / 13 based on the 5 top analogs that involve our region.

That is still rather low, but closer to a low-end moderate risk. I would rather see a value of 8.0 before putting us in a moderate risk category ( 3 being the most bullish and 13 the least bullish).

Of course, the usual suspect that could hinder severe development is cloud debris that may preclude aggressive storm initiation at the best time in the afternoon. Nevertheless, for the Thursday time frame, I am using the SQUALCON Index. Any value above 3.0 indicates an increasing likelihood for severe weather.

I have calculated a 3.7 for the region, which is one of the highest values I have assigned to the Louisville region this season, which encompasses Hancock County in the west to Fayette County in the east and LaRue County to the south.

I may have to use the SQUALCON Index again for Friday.

MS