Severe Weather Chances and SQUALCON

This is already becoming a tough forecast. A weakening band of rain and embedded thunderstorms is approaching our region of Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky this morning. Still, moderate to occasionally heavier rains are occurring over western part of Indiana.

Question becomes, will future redevelopment of vigorous storms initiate later today in the wake of early to mid-morning cloud debris?

I think the farther south you live, higher the chances for severe weather.

At this point, SQUALCON Index is at 3.3 / 5.0. This may not seem like an impressive number but is an average from Southern Indiana to central Kentucky.

Once the squall line develops, it will become quite rambunctious for a time as a few bowing segments will occur. Wind damage will be the primary mode of severe weather.

Obviously, depending on how quickly the atmosphere reloads, current thinking is from right along the Ohio River to points south stand a better than 3.0 / 5.0 for severe weather. Any value above 3.0 on my index increases the likelihood for severe storms.

Although current analogs are not bullish for widespread severe weather, with a 9.9/13 average or quite low ( 3 highest and 13 lowest), the potential exists for the most widespread wind/hail event this season in our region.

Let's see how this morning's cloud cover does and I will provide an update for severe chances shortly afterward.

MS