What Just Happened? Winter Storm Nearing 'Likely' Status

**WINTER STORM WARNING** for Kentucky...Disregard any comment about WWA for now in the post below....
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Remember last week how a storm system was setting its sites on our region only to see it shift at least 150 miles north over a period of a couple of runs? Yeah, Linus (The Weather Channel named storm).

Well, I have been following the latest runs of the models. Since I went to bed early, I missed the latest 00z data of the NAM. The storm system is within 36 hours of impacting the region, generally getting close to the sweet spot for the NAM. And wow, what a significant shift to the north!

Now, I'm not pulling the trigger yet, especially for those of us who reside closer to the Ohio River. After all, we here are on the northern extent of a massive snow shield forecast to develop overnight into Monday.

However, for south-central, most of central and eastern Kentucky, an impressive snow storm looks to deal a significant blow to your Monday morning commute.

As long as the next run of the NAM (12z) does not shift this thing too much, Kentucky could reap a bountiful harvest of white, a meteorological bullseye, something we haven't seen in a while around here.

It's hard to put numbers on this because the Arctic air in place has a lot of dry air for this system to overcome. But, once it gets going, look out.

I do expect an upgrade to Warning status for areas of, say, from E'town to Ashland and all points south of that for Kentucky. 4-10" based on latest data.

I would expect a  WWA for areas north of that. 1-4" for those areas.

My next update after I digest the data from the 12z run of the NAM.

Come on, I'm excited and I hate it because I'll have to work at the airport tomorrow night.

MS