Nowcast - SPC - MODERATE Risk Area Includes Louisville

The Storm Prediction Center has provided its Day 1 Convective Outlook and includes Louisville in a Moderate Risk area with accompanying hatched areas. Damaging wind continues to be the primary threat; however, brief tornadic spinups are still possible along a fast-moving squall line programmed to reach the Louisville area well after sundown this evening and tonight.

I will be updating this page throughout the day. This is a nowcast event.

Look for some of these parameters for severe weather support...
Amount of sunshine
Sudden erosion of capped atmosphere
Dewpoint temperatures
Wind shear
Jet streak > 100mph

Squall line to approach the Louisville area between 8 and 11 pm. This may have to be adjusted as the line develops. Again, updates in a little while. Next SPC update before 1pm.

12:30pm
I have updated squall line arrival between 7 and 9pm for Louisville area. Wondering whether we'll see widespread >58mph winds along this line as they approach Louisville. I think best chances reside south of the area. Dewpoints in the mid 50's  and temperatures are nearing 70 degrees. Looking forward to next update from SPC as to placement of moderate risk axis. I don't think Louisville will be included; nevertheless, severe weather will be possible all along this line (depends on where those bowing segments take place).
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3:30pm
SPC Moderate risk remains in place for Louisville; really, no changes made to our region, but additional changes west and south, mainly for hail from SW Tennessee to Texas.
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3:55pm
Pressure readings in southern and eastern MO as low as 29.17" last hour. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 50-60 mph being reported post frontal passage with mostly sunny skies.
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4:00pm
78 degrees last hour in Nashville. Dewpoint in Louisville at 54 degrees. NWS Louisville expecting line to arrive in Louisville between 8 and 10pm. Now, that the line has formed, it should take about 4-6 hours for it to reach the I-65 corridor.
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4:30pm
Tornado confirmed in Illinois near Jacksonville
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6:30pm
SPC considering issuing a Tornado Watch for much of central KY and central TN and a part of southern IN.
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7:30pm
Timeline originally was 8-11pm for Louisville. Looking at earlier forecast models caused me to up the time to 7-9pm. However, it looks like it was a line ahead of the main squall that I was looking at. Main squall still expected to arrive. That may have the best chance for high winds. However, these low-topped storms we have presently in the area may affect the main squall's ability to produce long-lived downburst winds because of cooler, stable air ahead of the main squall.







MS