Nowcast BIG Storm

Well, this was supposed to be the BIG storm. It's gonna be big for some in our region, however.

A mixture of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow. It's all in there, what is called a grab bag of precipitation.

Using the latest RAP short term model and weather observations upstream, this page will be updated frequently during the day.

I will focus mainly on Louisville but may include areas like Lexington and southern parts of Indiana as well.

6:30am
09z/04 run of the RAP shows at the 850mb and 925mb levels liquid precipitation for the most part above Louisville by 5pm. Surface temperatures will become critical by this time. At the onset, a mix of snow, sleet, and rain will be possible for Louisville. However, after a couple of hours, rain and pockets of sleet will dominate the next several hours through 10pm. If surface temperatures remain at or below freezing, accumulation of ice will become noticeable, at least 0.1" by then.
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9:45am
12z run RAP continues to show precipitation moving into the Louisville area between 4 and 5pm. It may start out before then but main shield should hold off till after 4pm. By midnight, total frozen precipitation could reach 0.44". That will not be good if it's all ice. But, it looks like sleet will be mixing in at times. Again, though, temperatures will be key.

Current temperature at my house in Valley Station is 29 degrees.

Interesting side note - The NAM, which is generally the model of choice for the short term, is considered the outlier. Last time the NAM was the outlier, it trumped all of the other models. It shows most of the ice along and just north of the Ohio River.
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