Friday, January 24, 2014

More Snow For Our Region


1:30pm UPDATE
I've decided to use my snowboard total after all. 2.0" in Valley Station
Louisville Int'l  2.4"
Louisville WFO (near J'town) 1.6"
Lexington  4.0"
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9:00am UPDATE
I'm calling it...T.O.D.(Time of Departure) 0900
Total in Valley Station 1 mile north of Gene Snyder Freeway at Stonestreet is 1.6" (official)
However, did get consistent readings of 2.0" on the pavement in the vicinity of my official reading.
It is possible that snow could have blown off of my white resin table , lowering my amounts. Nevertheless, I'm reporting 1.6".
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7:35am UPDATE
Total at 1.5" here at the house with a brief lull. All the snow is going to blow off of my makeshift measuring table before the next band pushes through shortly. Some areas could get an additional inch out of this next band.
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7:15am UPDATE Saturday January 25
This wind blown snow is difficult to measure.
1.3" on a reliable surface away from rooftops and other elevated locations in Valley Station. Makes it more susceptible to the wind; however, am getting 1.8" averaged out on the pavement near the house.
Looks like one more moderate band if it does not fall apart. Will be hard pressed to get 2".
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4:30pm UPDATE
Good point made by NWS Louisville. Advisory may be upgraded to warning status not because of the average 4" threshold, but blowing snow which will reduce visibility thus negatively impacting travel conditions.
NAM for Louisville 2-4"; RAP model showing at least 2".
More updates later.
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I considered the NAM model's last two runs, 0z and the 6z. Pretty consistent. For Louisville, average is 2.3". Therefore, based on this data, 1-3" can be expected in the Metro.

However, I will not be factoring any additional runs from the NAM from this point forward except for comparative purposes.

I will be switching to nowcast mode and using the short-term models. Since this snow is coming from the north, I will be using the RAP model. It shows runs out to 18 hours.

As I write this post, the 18th hour run shows what could be happening at the 4:00am hour. A band of moderately heavy snow setting up just north of Louisville and extending northeast toward Cincinnati. It's almost a similar setup to what we saw with the last system but perhaps a little farther north and east of Louisville.

I will be checking the trends in future runs later this afternoon and again later this evening perhaps.

MS

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