Computer models are spitting out the potential for flooding issues somewhere across the Commonwealth. However, a heat ridge is poised just to the west and southwest of that and could lead to temperatures soaring well into the 90's for mainly western Kentucky.
It is a tricky setup and one that forecasters will watch closely as to how this pattern continues to develop.
Last week, I began noticing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to occur within the next two weeks for our region. Will still have to monitor that potential. But right now, that particular threat could be transitioning to a heavy rain threat as we are under the influence of northwesterly flow while a strong heat ridge and its associated outer periphery are bound to collide.
Typically, strong storms in the form of an MCS develop along these boundaries and can unleash a tremendous amount of rain and wind (given enough instability). They tend to follow the moisture of high dewpoint readings.
The month of August has already set rainfall records for many residents east of the Mississippi River, especially the Northeast. Even here in Kentucky, drought conditions are beginning to ease for some while Lexington may just add to its top ten wettest August statistic.
Wherever the rain falls, it will be a lot. Wherever the heat is, it will be a lot.
Right now, the WPC, formerly known as the HPC, is forecasting 2-4" this upcoming week for eastern Kentucky from I-75 eastward. Lexington is already sporting a 4th wettest day (any given day, not just August) on record back on August 10th. If the higher end of the forecast is realized, Lexington could be looking at its wettest August on record. The heat ridge could nose in along the I-65 corridor and westward. More on this threat later.
MS
Sunday, August 17, 2014
Friday, August 8, 2014
When It Rains, It Pours
Yesterday's sprinkles were quite a nuisance. A whole lot of nothing, at least in the rain gauge department. It reminded me of the recent drought I had before we received downpours totaling up to 2" rain nearly two weeks ago. The only other rainfall activity we had prior to that was sprinkles or drizzle, definitely not beneficial for anything practical.
This morning's deluge of rain totaled 1.80" at my house in Valley Station. Louisville International has picked up close to 2". So, the recent trend at my house has been sprinkles or frog-stranglers. Either way too little or too much. Although in my case, 'too much' is still soaking into the ground.
Here are a few more locations around the Metro area and the state so far...because we do have more rain in the forecast.
Valley Station (Metropolitan Sewer District rain gauge at Lower River Rd) - 1.84"
PRP Fire Station - 1.73"
Shively - 1.63"
Fairdale - 1.55"
Bowling Green - 0.93"
Paducah - 0.95"
All totals thru 10:00am edt.
MS
This morning's deluge of rain totaled 1.80" at my house in Valley Station. Louisville International has picked up close to 2". So, the recent trend at my house has been sprinkles or frog-stranglers. Either way too little or too much. Although in my case, 'too much' is still soaking into the ground.
Here are a few more locations around the Metro area and the state so far...because we do have more rain in the forecast.
Valley Station (Metropolitan Sewer District rain gauge at Lower River Rd) - 1.84"
PRP Fire Station - 1.73"
Shively - 1.63"
Fairdale - 1.55"
Bowling Green - 0.93"
Paducah - 0.95"
All totals thru 10:00am edt.
MS
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Moderate Drought in Western Kentucky
Drought conditions continue to worsen across the western part of Kentucky. Moderate drought now encompasses nearly 20 percent of the state and includes about 20 counties. Hopkinsville and Bowling Green are a few locations within the moderate drought shading.
Conditions around Louisville have eased a little bit. In my part of southwest Jefferson County in Valley Station, I can testify that the rains we received almost 2 weeks ago put a huge dent in the dry ground. Despite the current 'No Drought' designation for my area, the ground is still quite dry. However, my yard could use the services of my lawn mower.
Also, I achieved over-capacity with regards to my rainfall collection for the garden. I'm good for the rest of the month, even if it does not rain.
Let's hope the current outlook for beneficial rains hold true for western Kentucky.
Drought Update
MS
Conditions around Louisville have eased a little bit. In my part of southwest Jefferson County in Valley Station, I can testify that the rains we received almost 2 weeks ago put a huge dent in the dry ground. Despite the current 'No Drought' designation for my area, the ground is still quite dry. However, my yard could use the services of my lawn mower.
Also, I achieved over-capacity with regards to my rainfall collection for the garden. I'm good for the rest of the month, even if it does not rain.
Let's hope the current outlook for beneficial rains hold true for western Kentucky.
Drought Update
MS
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Valley Station - PRP Storm Story July 26-27 2014
A strong line of storms plowed into the southwest part of Jefferson County early Saturday night and produced one of the most vivid displays of lightning that I have witnessed in a few years. In addition, I estimated wind gusts of at least 50 mph at my location in Valley Station, about 15 minutes southwest of Louisville International airport.
At 9:00 pm, I was tracking a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving toward the Leavenworth area of Indiana. When nautical twilight had elapsed, I could see some hints of lightning to my west and northwest.
Following the storm using RADAR and a real-time lightning tracker, the southwest-northeast oriented line appeared to be strongest at the southwest end. Forecasting the track at that time would place the strongest part over Breckinridge, Meade, and Hardin counties, just missing the adjacent part of southwest Jefferson County.
However, during the next 30 minutes, cloud to ground lightning strikes began increasing rapidly just to my west in Harrison County, Indiana and to my southwest in Meade County, Kentucky. By this time, my little girl was enthralled by the light show as the real-time lightning tracker was crackling on my computer screen at the same time.
Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for western Jefferson County along with a handful of adjacent counties until 10:15 pm. Well, I was the easternmost extent of the warned area and by 10:00, just a lot of lightning and no wind to speak of.
Then, another warning was issued for the southern part of Jefferson County. By 10:10, the down draft base was being illuminated by the lightning off to my northwest. I knew then that the winds and rain would be increasing shortly.
I decided to unplug my electronic gadgets because the lightning was very intense. Within a few minutes, the winds began increasing and then the rain began falling heavily.
Peak wind gusts were sustained by about 10:20. The weight of the water collecting on the leaves of tree branches began taking a toll as winds gusted to at least 50 mph twice during a one-minute span.
Finally, I decided to get inside and suggested that we may end up losing power, not so much from the wind but from the lightning, because we had not lost power up until that time. Then, right on cue, the lights blinked, blinked again, tried valiantly to stay on, and then darkness. Well, the power went out. As far as darkness, I don't think so. The lightning was my candle to the candles and push lights, then we just waited out the storm.
The way the lights had flickered, I figured a small limb must have landed on a wire somewhere in the neighborhood and just shorted the transformer. I did not recall hearing any blown transformers, though.
By 10:45, my mother's neighbor calls the house (they live about 2 miles southwest of me). We have no power, so our 900 MHz cordless does not ring. However, the phone in the bedroom was emitting a series of chirps. She informs me that they actually had power but the phone lines in the neighborhood were out.
She informs me that AT&T would be out in their neighborhood the next day. I thanked her for calling. Of course, my mother rarely leaves her cell phone on. That's why nobody could get a hold of them. Since my grandmother who lives with them has a serious medical condition, a phone, or access to a phone is a necessity.
Getting out of the house to drive over there was interesting. Traffic light was blinking red. Four-way stop. I was surprised by the number of people out and about at this time of night. But, everyone did fine.
Actually, many people had power and then again, many people did not. At a stop sign, I looked to my right and there were no porch lights on, just complete darkness. Yet, on the left, people had power on the one side of the street.
Uh oh. Rounding the curve, one of those mobile and adjustable basketball goals was blocking the street. If people would just put sand or gravel inside the base of those things, it could actually withstand the strong winds. I hoisted it upright, thinking that these little patio pavers, three of them, one already broken, was not going to keep this thing standing erect if we get much more wind later.
There were a smattering of twigs and small branches laying in the road, nothing serious. After I informed my father about me losing power, we noticed his neighbors across the street had no power either.
During a weather update, he said at least 11,000 LG&E customers were without power. He was surprised that they had power. Since the whole neighborhood has underground utilities, I was surprised they had lost power.
The following morning, I awoke to more storms pounding the area. An impressive amount of lightning at about 4:30 kept me up for the rest of the day. Despite the amount of lightning at that time, I only saw just a little bit of rain from those cells, while just to my south, they must have been hit hard because the lightning stayed over those areas. I learned later that some areas just to my south had received over 1" in about an hour from storms that kept training over their locations.
However, by 6:30, I got mine. The lightning was not as intense. But another round of very heavy rain moved into the area and more than doubled the amount of rain I had received from the storm earlier that night.
Later that morning, I drove to get batteries for the weather radio and gas for the generator. Some traffic lights were completely out, no blinking red, just nothing. I was appalled that drivers failed to treat the intersections as 4-way stops. Technically, you are required to treat those instances as 4-way stops, even if the lights are not blinking red. But, safety rules the roost. So, I drove defensively, anticipating their unmannerly, perhaps ignorant views of this technicality.
Driving around the various communities during the next few hours, I noticed several broken tree limbs. In fact, at one time, one road was blocked due to a falling limb. And those beautifully shaped Bradford Pear trees really took a beating. I saw at least 7 trees that had a portion of its top ripped out, thereby making the entire tree useless to look at anymore.
Overall, it was an impressive series of storms. As a storm spotter, I was unable to report anything because technically, I did not have winds that reached severe criteria. But, I should have alerted the NWS office of the high winds and power outages. Furthermore, I seemed to stress the importance of being prepared for a severe weather episode. And I was totally unprepared even though I knew that a line of strong storms was bearing down on the area. No fresh batteries in the weather radio, no candles or push lights. Also, when my gutters were clogged with debris from earlier storms, I failed to climb my ladder to the roof and clean those downspouts when there was a brief lull. Oh well.
MS
At 9:00 pm, I was tracking a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving toward the Leavenworth area of Indiana. When nautical twilight had elapsed, I could see some hints of lightning to my west and northwest.
Following the storm using RADAR and a real-time lightning tracker, the southwest-northeast oriented line appeared to be strongest at the southwest end. Forecasting the track at that time would place the strongest part over Breckinridge, Meade, and Hardin counties, just missing the adjacent part of southwest Jefferson County.
However, during the next 30 minutes, cloud to ground lightning strikes began increasing rapidly just to my west in Harrison County, Indiana and to my southwest in Meade County, Kentucky. By this time, my little girl was enthralled by the light show as the real-time lightning tracker was crackling on my computer screen at the same time.
Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for western Jefferson County along with a handful of adjacent counties until 10:15 pm. Well, I was the easternmost extent of the warned area and by 10:00, just a lot of lightning and no wind to speak of.
Then, another warning was issued for the southern part of Jefferson County. By 10:10, the down draft base was being illuminated by the lightning off to my northwest. I knew then that the winds and rain would be increasing shortly.
I decided to unplug my electronic gadgets because the lightning was very intense. Within a few minutes, the winds began increasing and then the rain began falling heavily.
Peak wind gusts were sustained by about 10:20. The weight of the water collecting on the leaves of tree branches began taking a toll as winds gusted to at least 50 mph twice during a one-minute span.
Finally, I decided to get inside and suggested that we may end up losing power, not so much from the wind but from the lightning, because we had not lost power up until that time. Then, right on cue, the lights blinked, blinked again, tried valiantly to stay on, and then darkness. Well, the power went out. As far as darkness, I don't think so. The lightning was my candle to the candles and push lights, then we just waited out the storm.
The way the lights had flickered, I figured a small limb must have landed on a wire somewhere in the neighborhood and just shorted the transformer. I did not recall hearing any blown transformers, though.
By 10:45, my mother's neighbor calls the house (they live about 2 miles southwest of me). We have no power, so our 900 MHz cordless does not ring. However, the phone in the bedroom was emitting a series of chirps. She informs me that they actually had power but the phone lines in the neighborhood were out.
She informs me that AT&T would be out in their neighborhood the next day. I thanked her for calling. Of course, my mother rarely leaves her cell phone on. That's why nobody could get a hold of them. Since my grandmother who lives with them has a serious medical condition, a phone, or access to a phone is a necessity.
Getting out of the house to drive over there was interesting. Traffic light was blinking red. Four-way stop. I was surprised by the number of people out and about at this time of night. But, everyone did fine.
Actually, many people had power and then again, many people did not. At a stop sign, I looked to my right and there were no porch lights on, just complete darkness. Yet, on the left, people had power on the one side of the street.
Uh oh. Rounding the curve, one of those mobile and adjustable basketball goals was blocking the street. If people would just put sand or gravel inside the base of those things, it could actually withstand the strong winds. I hoisted it upright, thinking that these little patio pavers, three of them, one already broken, was not going to keep this thing standing erect if we get much more wind later.
There were a smattering of twigs and small branches laying in the road, nothing serious. After I informed my father about me losing power, we noticed his neighbors across the street had no power either.
During a weather update, he said at least 11,000 LG&E customers were without power. He was surprised that they had power. Since the whole neighborhood has underground utilities, I was surprised they had lost power.
The following morning, I awoke to more storms pounding the area. An impressive amount of lightning at about 4:30 kept me up for the rest of the day. Despite the amount of lightning at that time, I only saw just a little bit of rain from those cells, while just to my south, they must have been hit hard because the lightning stayed over those areas. I learned later that some areas just to my south had received over 1" in about an hour from storms that kept training over their locations.
However, by 6:30, I got mine. The lightning was not as intense. But another round of very heavy rain moved into the area and more than doubled the amount of rain I had received from the storm earlier that night.
Later that morning, I drove to get batteries for the weather radio and gas for the generator. Some traffic lights were completely out, no blinking red, just nothing. I was appalled that drivers failed to treat the intersections as 4-way stops. Technically, you are required to treat those instances as 4-way stops, even if the lights are not blinking red. But, safety rules the roost. So, I drove defensively, anticipating their unmannerly, perhaps ignorant views of this technicality.
Driving around the various communities during the next few hours, I noticed several broken tree limbs. In fact, at one time, one road was blocked due to a falling limb. And those beautifully shaped Bradford Pear trees really took a beating. I saw at least 7 trees that had a portion of its top ripped out, thereby making the entire tree useless to look at anymore.
Overall, it was an impressive series of storms. As a storm spotter, I was unable to report anything because technically, I did not have winds that reached severe criteria. But, I should have alerted the NWS office of the high winds and power outages. Furthermore, I seemed to stress the importance of being prepared for a severe weather episode. And I was totally unprepared even though I knew that a line of strong storms was bearing down on the area. No fresh batteries in the weather radio, no candles or push lights. Also, when my gutters were clogged with debris from earlier storms, I failed to climb my ladder to the roof and clean those downspouts when there was a brief lull. Oh well.
MS
Cleanup in Aisle 9: Kentucky - Broken Records
Almost one year ago we were in the midst of a potent cool spell, at least by July's standards, that peaked out from the 27th through the 29th and set records across a large part of the Midwest. But, this one has been a more remarkable run of cooler than normal conditions for the month.
This morning, Louisville set a record low along with Frankfort and Lexington. Some temperatures dipped into the upper 40's here in the rural parts of counties bordering Jefferson County.
At my house, I saw 52 degrees in Valley Station.
While records were being smashed this morning, many of us are probably still cleaning up after the weekend storms. I'll be one of them today. Lots of generally small limbs for me, though.
MS
This morning, Louisville set a record low along with Frankfort and Lexington. Some temperatures dipped into the upper 40's here in the rural parts of counties bordering Jefferson County.
At my house, I saw 52 degrees in Valley Station.
While records were being smashed this morning, many of us are probably still cleaning up after the weekend storms. I'll be one of them today. Lots of generally small limbs for me, though.
MS
Saturday, July 26, 2014
Louisville Included in Moderate Risk for Severe Weather
UPDATE 5:15PM
Latest update from SPC...Moderate risk has been dropped due to lack of confidence in the development of MCS. ..Like I said before, always a tough thing to forecast several hours ahead of time. However, most of the same areas are still running with a high-end slight risk with damaging wind the primary threat. The atmosphere is juiced and the radar is already lighting up .
-----------------------------------
UPDATE 12:40pm
Latest update from SPC...Moderate risk backed off for a few more locations. However, models are continuing to diverge on expected solutions. Many factors still unclear. Again, these types of storm systems are always tough to forecast ahead of time. We really will not know how to forecast this thing until after the cap erodes later this evening and the actual complex begins to form.
------------------------------------
UPDATE 11:45am
Warm front pushing through Louisville shortly. Dew points in low 70's in western KY. We'll feel it as soon as southwest winds kick in....
---------------------------------------
UPDATE 11:30am
Louisville out of moderate risk for now from SPC...However, uncertainty continues as to timing, formation, and location of well-advertised MCS. Since atmospheric conditions will become ripe for severe weather development, I think it's a good idea that the entire region is alerted to the very real possibility of severe storms, especially in areas that may be impacted overnight.
Another update from SPC due soon....
-----------------------------------------------
From the SPC, confidence is high that a significant severe weather event will be realized. Primarily, areas just north of the Ohio River across southern and central Indiana stand the best chance of seeing rough weather.
However, Louisville is included in a 45 percent hatched area for wind damage albeit barely.
It will be interesting to see how the numbers for severe weather will play out later this evening. We haven't seen too many overnight severe episodes in quite a while for Louisville.
Keep in mind, these MCS type storms are always very tricky to forecast ahead of time. So far, these are just computer-modeled forecasts. We really will not know how bad it could get until AFTER the complex begins materializing.
If the storms do in fact form, a significant wind event will be quite likely as winds could easily exceed severe criteria of 58 mph in many areas. Isolated spin-ups within the complex and along a bowing segment are possible as well.
More updates due later this morning.
MS
Latest update from SPC...Moderate risk has been dropped due to lack of confidence in the development of MCS. ..Like I said before, always a tough thing to forecast several hours ahead of time. However, most of the same areas are still running with a high-end slight risk with damaging wind the primary threat. The atmosphere is juiced and the radar is already lighting up .
-----------------------------------
UPDATE 12:40pm
Latest update from SPC...Moderate risk backed off for a few more locations. However, models are continuing to diverge on expected solutions. Many factors still unclear. Again, these types of storm systems are always tough to forecast ahead of time. We really will not know how to forecast this thing until after the cap erodes later this evening and the actual complex begins to form.
------------------------------------
UPDATE 11:45am
Warm front pushing through Louisville shortly. Dew points in low 70's in western KY. We'll feel it as soon as southwest winds kick in....
---------------------------------------
UPDATE 11:30am
Louisville out of moderate risk for now from SPC...However, uncertainty continues as to timing, formation, and location of well-advertised MCS. Since atmospheric conditions will become ripe for severe weather development, I think it's a good idea that the entire region is alerted to the very real possibility of severe storms, especially in areas that may be impacted overnight.
Another update from SPC due soon....
-----------------------------------------------
From the SPC, confidence is high that a significant severe weather event will be realized. Primarily, areas just north of the Ohio River across southern and central Indiana stand the best chance of seeing rough weather.
However, Louisville is included in a 45 percent hatched area for wind damage albeit barely.
It will be interesting to see how the numbers for severe weather will play out later this evening. We haven't seen too many overnight severe episodes in quite a while for Louisville.
Keep in mind, these MCS type storms are always very tricky to forecast ahead of time. So far, these are just computer-modeled forecasts. We really will not know how bad it could get until AFTER the complex begins materializing.
If the storms do in fact form, a significant wind event will be quite likely as winds could easily exceed severe criteria of 58 mph in many areas. Isolated spin-ups within the complex and along a bowing segment are possible as well.
More updates due later this morning.
MS
Friday, July 25, 2014
Severe Chances Going Up
The Storm Prediction Center continues to advertise a possible widespread damaging wind event for Saturday. At this time, the highest chance for severe weather appears to lie across central Indiana and Illinois.
Will these storms maintain their strength as they approach Kentucky? Still, a lot of variables to look at, but Kentucky does appear to be within the area of instability to support at least a chance for damaging winds.
Stay tuned....
MS
Will these storms maintain their strength as they approach Kentucky? Still, a lot of variables to look at, but Kentucky does appear to be within the area of instability to support at least a chance for damaging winds.
Stay tuned....
MS
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