Sunday, August 17, 2014

On the Edge of High Heat and High Water

Computer models are spitting out the potential for flooding issues somewhere across the Commonwealth. However, a heat ridge is poised just to the west and southwest of that and could lead to temperatures soaring well into the 90's for mainly western Kentucky.

It is a tricky setup and one that forecasters will watch closely as to how this pattern continues to develop.

Last week, I began noticing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to occur within the next two weeks for our region. Will still have to monitor that potential. But right now, that particular threat could be transitioning to a heavy rain threat as we are under the influence of northwesterly flow while a strong heat ridge and its associated outer periphery are bound to collide.

Typically, strong storms in the form of an MCS develop along these boundaries and can unleash a tremendous amount of rain and wind (given enough instability). They tend to follow the moisture of high dewpoint readings.

The month of August has already set rainfall records for many residents east of the Mississippi River, especially the Northeast. Even here in Kentucky, drought conditions are beginning to ease for some while Lexington may just add to its top ten wettest August statistic.

Wherever the rain falls, it will be a lot. Wherever the heat is, it will be a lot.

Right now, the WPC, formerly known as the HPC, is forecasting 2-4" this upcoming week for eastern Kentucky from I-75 eastward. Lexington is already sporting a 4th wettest day (any given day, not just August) on record back on August 10th. If the higher end of the forecast is realized, Lexington could be looking at its wettest August on record. The heat ridge could nose in along the I-65 corridor and westward. More on this threat later.



MS

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