Louisville Included in Moderate Risk for Severe Weather

UPDATE 5:15PM

Latest update from SPC...Moderate risk has been dropped due to lack of confidence in the development of MCS. ..Like I said before, always a tough thing to forecast several hours ahead of time. However, most of the same areas are still running with a high-end slight risk with damaging wind the primary threat. The atmosphere is juiced and the radar is already lighting up .
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UPDATE 12:40pm
Latest update from SPC...Moderate risk backed off for a few more locations. However, models are continuing to diverge on expected solutions. Many factors still unclear. Again, these types of storm systems are always tough to forecast ahead of time. We really will not know how to forecast this thing until after the cap erodes later this evening and the actual complex begins to form.
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UPDATE 11:45am
Warm front pushing through Louisville shortly. Dew points in low 70's in western KY. We'll feel it as soon as southwest winds kick in....
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UPDATE 11:30am
Louisville out of moderate risk for now from SPC...However, uncertainty continues as to timing, formation, and location of well-advertised MCS. Since atmospheric conditions will become ripe for severe weather development, I think it's a good idea that the entire region is alerted to the very real possibility of severe storms, especially in areas that may be impacted overnight.

Another update from SPC due soon....
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From the SPC, confidence is high that a significant severe weather event will be realized. Primarily, areas just north of the Ohio River across southern and central Indiana stand the best chance of seeing rough weather.

However, Louisville is included in a 45 percent hatched area for wind damage albeit barely.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers for severe weather will play out later this evening. We haven't seen too many overnight severe episodes in quite a while for Louisville.

Keep in mind, these MCS type storms are always very tricky to forecast ahead of time. So far, these are just computer-modeled forecasts. We really will not know how bad it could get until AFTER the complex begins materializing.

If the storms do in fact form, a significant wind event will be quite likely as winds could easily exceed severe criteria of 58 mph in many areas. Isolated spin-ups within the complex and along a bowing segment are possible as well.

More updates due later this morning.

MS