Tornado Myth - SW Corner of the Home Is the Safest

       This is one of my favorite tornado myths: The southwest corner of the home provides the safest location from flying debris.

       Actually, I thought this was an excellent observation. I was so glad that actual verification of this statement was spot on.

        Really? Look, I have been a storm spotter for many years. Although I have not been in an actual tornado, I have seen the funnels and the rotating and lowering wall clouds. In addition, I have witnessed winds coming from the opposite direction of an approaching storm. That's kind of eerie, actually. I've even been in a hurricane, witnessing the effects of Charley (August 2004) as it raced ashore and impacted the area I was located just outside of Orlando and Kissimmee Florida. I've seen what 100 mph winds can do to a structure. A screened-in porch was ripped away from a neighbor's home just down the street and sent flying overhead  into the house next door to where I was staying. Therefore,  just based on a minimum category 2 hurricane, I can assure you that no part of your home is safe when it comes to flying debris.

        Take a look below at additional reasons why this myth is debunked. I really like the first one listed.

• This myth was devised slowly by the misconception that all tornadoes move to the northeast.  Therefore as the tornado hits your home, all the debris would be directed to the northeast, away from you (Italics mine).  Interestingly, if the tornado is approaching your location from the southwest, aren't you in the path of the debris field just northeast of the impending twister? Therefore, as the debris field pelts your home punching holes in the structure and smashing windows, the tornado now proceeds to ravage the rest of your structure, lifting the roof off, buckling the walls and sending any leftover flying debris into any corner of the house. Since tornadoes can move in any direction, this myth is false.

• The SW corner is no safer than any other part of the basement, because walls, floors and furniture can collapse (or be blown) into any corner.

• Debris such as motor vehicles can also be pushed into the basement by a tornado.  You should position yourself under the I-Beam or a heavy work bench in your lowest level to increase your chances for survival.

• During a tornado warning, seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest level of the building, away from windows, and if possible, under a sturdy piece of furniture or staircase.

       (Information from above bullet points provided by http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=taw-part2-tornado_myths)

       All comments in red are mine.

MS

An Ominous Weather Analog ...

Feel that humidity in the air. In fact, we can almost wear it, kinda just clings to me, at least. However, change is on the way. Sometimes, change in the Ohio Valley from a warm and humid to a cooler weather pattern almost invariably leads to severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in Kentucky under a Slight Risk category. At this time, the good folks there do not expect a widespread outbreak of severe weather.

Looking at weather analogs for this storm system, most analogs are fairly benign with low amounts of severe weather anticipated. However, there was one 'ugly' analog that happened to show up for this event and actually has skewed the results for the rest of the 14 other top analogs.

The tornado outbreak of April 27-28, 2011. It has been claimed that this outbreak even surpasses the April 3-4, 1974 event.

Remember the locations affected? Perhaps you were glued to The Weather Channel as I was when they were showing live video footage of a large tornado bearing down on Birmingham, Alabama. Earlier, Tuscaloosa was ravaged by a violent tornado. And later, Chattanooga, Tennessee would be struck as well.

316 deaths were attributed to the outbreak nationwide. 15 violent tornadoes (EF-4 to EF-5 damage) were confirmed. Over 4 billion dollars of damage occurred.

Let's hope that the odds are in our favor that widespread tornadoes are not expected. But, do not let your guard down. Even the SPC says that isolated tornadoes may occur near the Low-pressure system. And that would put it in our region of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Indiana.

For additional reading about the tornado outbreak of April 27-28, 2011 as well as the Joplin MO tornado on May 22 of that year, click on the link below:

The Historic Tornadoes of April 2011

MS

More Storms Today

Don't let the sunshine fool you this morning. In fact, it's the sunshine that is going to help destabilize the atmosphere later this afternoon. That will lead to another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms for parts of the Commonwealth.

Latest indications place the highest probabilities for severe weather across the Lake Cumberland region. However, any locations along and east of I-65 in Kentucky should keep an eye to the sky. This should not be a widespread severe event, however.

Storm-weary residents of Alabama and Mississippi will be bracing for the possibility of more tornadoes today.

These are the areas I believe stand the highest chances for tornadic weather this afternoon...

Meridian MS
Heidelberg MS
Laurel MS
Waynesboro MS
Tuscaloosa AL
Birmingham AL
Demopolis AL

Adjacent communities of the above locations are included....

MS

Select Rain Totals

Valley Station (home) 2.42"
Valley Station (MSD gauge) 2.73"
St Matthews MSD 2.81"
Hite Creek ne jeff co MSD 3.08"
Mt St Francis IN MSD 3.29"
IVY Tech IN MSD 4.51"

Louisville Int'l 2.69"

MS

Nowcast - Severe Weather Updates

From the Storm Prediction Center:
There is the potential for a widespread severe weather episode from the Ozark plateau eastward into the middle and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

At this time, the primary mode of severe weather appears to be damaging wind for much of central and western Kentucky late this afternoon into the overnight. However, depending on how quickly the cells merge into a squall line, tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially across far west Kentucky.

As of this writing, a Tornado Watch is in effect for much of western and central Arkansas and southern Missouri. It's what I call a mid-level tiered Watch box, which means it is a standard Tornado Watch that includes at least a 50% chance for tornadoes, hail, and/or high winds within the Watch box.

Later watches may include the risk for long-track tornadoes which may necessitate a changing of language to a PDS, or Particularly Dangerous Situation, tornado watch. However, SPC is not quite ready to jump on that idea as we await how current storms and cloud cover will affect areas downstream.

I'll be posting updates below throughout the day, or follow the scrolling message above.
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1:55pm
Tornado Watch for far west KY. Analyzing the language from the SPC, a mid-level tiered Watch or standard watch box with at least 50% chance for tornadoes in the watch box. However, less than 50% chance for wind and hail but still considered moderate.

Next severe weather outlook and risk between 4 and 4:30 eastern time.
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8:15pm
Severe weather is ongoing way out west of our region. For the most part, just severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect. Tornado warnings are expected to increase in Arkansas. What will our weather be like in a few hours? We will have to monitor how the line holds together, whether another line develops ahead of the main line, and whether the current rain shield will disrupt the severe potential for parts of our region.\


MS

More Basketball and Snowballs

During the Sweet Sixteen of the men's NCAA basketball tournament in Indianapolis, the state of Kentucky put on a show for the national scene, none more so than those who were actually present at the game.

While Louisville held on for most of the game, the vaulted freshmen of UK finally overcame UL's lead in the waning moments of their matchup.

If you've ever read my blog posts, at times you will notice how I find little anecdotes that seem to always have some relationship to weather.

Well, what does the game have to with weather you may ask?

Louisville and Lexington recorded their seasonal heaviest snowfalls in years. Although snowfall may still accumulate, the odds are quite slim of snowfall amounts greater than a couple of inches at one time in April.

Early in the winter season, Louisville received much more snowfall than Lexington. However, as the season progressed, Lexington began receiving more snow than Louisville and gradually closed the gap. Finally, here at the end of the season, Lexington has eclipsed Louisville in the snowfall department.

Lexington  26.8"
Louisville 25.9"

Game over. Again....

MS

'Snow'ver Achiever

Well, at least in my estimate, this snow is becoming an overachiever. Right now, heavy snow falling here at Valley Station. In fact, secondary roads are becoming overwhelmed by the huge flakes falling at this time. Closing in on 1" here. More later.

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8:30pm
1.5" and it looks like it's finally coming to an end shortly. Not expecting much more but will check in if more accumulates.


MS