An Ominous Weather Analog ...

Feel that humidity in the air. In fact, we can almost wear it, kinda just clings to me, at least. However, change is on the way. Sometimes, change in the Ohio Valley from a warm and humid to a cooler weather pattern almost invariably leads to severe weather.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in Kentucky under a Slight Risk category. At this time, the good folks there do not expect a widespread outbreak of severe weather.

Looking at weather analogs for this storm system, most analogs are fairly benign with low amounts of severe weather anticipated. However, there was one 'ugly' analog that happened to show up for this event and actually has skewed the results for the rest of the 14 other top analogs.

The tornado outbreak of April 27-28, 2011. It has been claimed that this outbreak even surpasses the April 3-4, 1974 event.

Remember the locations affected? Perhaps you were glued to The Weather Channel as I was when they were showing live video footage of a large tornado bearing down on Birmingham, Alabama. Earlier, Tuscaloosa was ravaged by a violent tornado. And later, Chattanooga, Tennessee would be struck as well.

316 deaths were attributed to the outbreak nationwide. 15 violent tornadoes (EF-4 to EF-5 damage) were confirmed. Over 4 billion dollars of damage occurred.

Let's hope that the odds are in our favor that widespread tornadoes are not expected. But, do not let your guard down. Even the SPC says that isolated tornadoes may occur near the Low-pressure system. And that would put it in our region of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Indiana.

For additional reading about the tornado outbreak of April 27-28, 2011 as well as the Joplin MO tornado on May 22 of that year, click on the link below:

The Historic Tornadoes of April 2011

MS