Nowcast - Severe Weather Updates

From the Storm Prediction Center:
There is the potential for a widespread severe weather episode from the Ozark plateau eastward into the middle and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

At this time, the primary mode of severe weather appears to be damaging wind for much of central and western Kentucky late this afternoon into the overnight. However, depending on how quickly the cells merge into a squall line, tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially across far west Kentucky.

As of this writing, a Tornado Watch is in effect for much of western and central Arkansas and southern Missouri. It's what I call a mid-level tiered Watch box, which means it is a standard Tornado Watch that includes at least a 50% chance for tornadoes, hail, and/or high winds within the Watch box.

Later watches may include the risk for long-track tornadoes which may necessitate a changing of language to a PDS, or Particularly Dangerous Situation, tornado watch. However, SPC is not quite ready to jump on that idea as we await how current storms and cloud cover will affect areas downstream.

I'll be posting updates below throughout the day, or follow the scrolling message above.
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1:55pm
Tornado Watch for far west KY. Analyzing the language from the SPC, a mid-level tiered Watch or standard watch box with at least 50% chance for tornadoes in the watch box. However, less than 50% chance for wind and hail but still considered moderate.

Next severe weather outlook and risk between 4 and 4:30 eastern time.
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8:15pm
Severe weather is ongoing way out west of our region. For the most part, just severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect. Tornado warnings are expected to increase in Arkansas. What will our weather be like in a few hours? We will have to monitor how the line holds together, whether another line develops ahead of the main line, and whether the current rain shield will disrupt the severe potential for parts of our region.\


MS