NOWCAST February Big Snow 2015

Good morning....Valley Station right now at 1" with steadier snow moving in here at 5:30am.

Snowfall reports from west to east...

Mayfield................2.5"
Evansville..............1"
Madisonville..........2"
Central City KY...1.5"

I will be posting here periodically....MS

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7:00am UPDATE

Snow really ramped up over the past hour in Valley Station. Now at 2.5".

Highview in Louisville.....2"
Greensburg........................2"
Lexington..........................2"
Rineyville..........................2"

In western KY, 2-4" reports are common.
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8:00am UPDATE

Lighter snow last hour only yielded about 0.1". Valley Station total at 2.6". However, moderate to heavy snow bands on all sides of Evansville heading this way with more farther west. Expect heavier snow to pick up by 10am. May make slight adjustment in expected total for Louisville. My original forecast called for 7-10". But, that bust potential is getting closer to the Ohio River as I feared last night. Nevertheless, with some heavier bands around, 6-9" still looks good.

Reports of 5" amounts now in Brownsville, west of I-65 and south of Nolin Lake in Edmonson county.
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9:15am UPDATE
3" in Valley Station...with moderate snow falling now.
Reports of 4-6" in western KY, including a 6.5" in Greenville KY in Muhlenberg County

2-4" in Jefferson County common.

4-6" south of Louisville in Breckinridge and Ohio counties.

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10:30am UPDATE
4.3" in Valley Station...moderate snow.
Moderate to heavy snow falling along the Ohio River back to Evansville then farther west into Cape Giradeau MO heading our way. After that, main accumulating snow begins to taper off.

My thinking is that Louisville or my part of Louisville in sw Jefferson county should end up with at least 7-8", again possibly more, depending on heavier bands.

Am seeing reports of 4-7" across the Louisville CWA. Far western KY seeing 8" while parts of Illinois have nearly 10"!
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11:30am UPDATE
5.3" in Valley Station....snow had lightened for a brief moment but now picking up again.
On track to reach 7-8", perhaps higher if heavier bands develop.

Louisville Int'l has reached 5.2" during the last hour, good enough for a new daily snowfall record for this date. Our neighbor Lexington is on the verge of setting a new daily snowfall record for this date too.

Lots of 7" amounts being reported from E'town to Richmond and down in Taylor county near Campbellsville.

Looking at radar returns...could dry air be wrapping into this thing already? Out west, the moderate band is shrinking just near Evansville. Main accumulating snow may cut off here in a couple of hours. It's going to be a race for that 7" mark all of a sudden.
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12:30pm UPDATE
9" reports coming in from Grayson county. 6-9" becoming more common around here in central KY.
I even read a report of 9" in Pleasure Ridge Park here in sw Jefferson county, an adjacent area just to my north. If that's the case, I'm jealous because I'm only getting 6.7" here in Valley Station.

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2:30pm UPDATE
7.3" now in Valley Station, with much lighter snow over the past 2 hours. What about that band to the northwest of the area. Very heavy band of snow with that one.

The Call For Snowfall

Here is a breakdown of potential snow totals...and these may be conservative for some....

Bowling Green.......6-10"
Richmond...............9-13"
Lexington...............8-12"
Louisville...............7-10"
Bardstown..............8-12"
Danville..................9-13"
E'town.....................8-12"
London...................6-10"
Corbin....................5-9"
Middlesboro...........3-6"
Morehead...............9-13"

Some amounts may be bust potential especially toward Louisville and Ohio River corridor. Other locations that could bust would be toward southern and southeast Kentucky where sleet could mix in and diminish snow totals or else more snow than I'm expecting.

Looking at RAP now....
Updates in new post entitled NOWCAST February Big Snow 2015

MS

Winter Weather Stats

If this snow system should materialize as expected for the overnight into Monday, here are a few daily records that could be broken tomorrow.

Louisville's daily snow record for February 16 is.....4.6" (1967)
Lexington's daily snow record for February 16 is.....6.0" (1967)

But, here's a good one.

Bowling Green's daily record for February 16 is.....11.0" (1903). That is also the 3rd snowiest day on record for all months. Bowling Green needs at least 7.0" to break into the top ten snowiest days list.

Lexington needs at least 8.0" to break into the top ten snowiest days list
Louisville needs at least 9.5" to break into the top ten snowiest days list, which might be a little bit tough to do.

For the calendar year 2014, Louisville recorded 10 days with temperatures in the single digits.
Lexington recorded 17 days in the single digits.
Bowling Green had 8 days in the single digits.

So far, not including this morning, for 2015, the number of times we have recorded single digit temperatures are as follows...

Louisville................3
Lexington................4
Bowling Green........3

Those numbers will be on the rise since many areas saw temperatures below 10 degrees this morning. And we have a few days lined up for this week with some perhaps going below zero!

BiG Snow Likely

NWS is calling this the largest snow storm to hit the area here for Louisville in at least 10 years, even comparing this one with heavyweights of the 1990's.

As I looked at the analogs for this storm system, the NAM analog has 2 powerhouse storms from the 90's in the top 6, including the January 1994 event.

I am working on another post for later this evening that has stats on daily weather records. It does appear that Louisville and Lexington could be looking at new daily snowfall records for the date tomorrow. In fact, some amounts may be in the top ten snowiest days ever for any month.

I am still not overly optimistic about Louisville's chances for a BIG snow (> 6"). However, the WPC has an area near Louisville and just south in a moderate risk for snowfall amounts approaching 12"!!

NWS Louisville has Louisville in a 8-12" range.

Until I digest data from the RAP short range models, I still think there could be a bust potential for areas near the Ohio River.

Nevertheless, I still think Louisville should see 4-8", amounts varying from smaller in the north to larger accumulations south. Still a big snow, regardless.

It will be interesting to see where these heavier bands set up. Somebody is going to get pounded.

More updates likely...

MS

What Just Happened? Winter Storm Nearing 'Likely' Status

**WINTER STORM WARNING** for Kentucky...Disregard any comment about WWA for now in the post below....
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Remember last week how a storm system was setting its sites on our region only to see it shift at least 150 miles north over a period of a couple of runs? Yeah, Linus (The Weather Channel named storm).

Well, I have been following the latest runs of the models. Since I went to bed early, I missed the latest 00z data of the NAM. The storm system is within 36 hours of impacting the region, generally getting close to the sweet spot for the NAM. And wow, what a significant shift to the north!

Now, I'm not pulling the trigger yet, especially for those of us who reside closer to the Ohio River. After all, we here are on the northern extent of a massive snow shield forecast to develop overnight into Monday.

However, for south-central, most of central and eastern Kentucky, an impressive snow storm looks to deal a significant blow to your Monday morning commute.

As long as the next run of the NAM (12z) does not shift this thing too much, Kentucky could reap a bountiful harvest of white, a meteorological bullseye, something we haven't seen in a while around here.

It's hard to put numbers on this because the Arctic air in place has a lot of dry air for this system to overcome. But, once it gets going, look out.

I do expect an upgrade to Warning status for areas of, say, from E'town to Ashland and all points south of that for Kentucky. 4-10" based on latest data.

I would expect a  WWA for areas north of that. 1-4" for those areas.

My next update after I digest the data from the 12z run of the NAM.

Come on, I'm excited and I hate it because I'll have to work at the airport tomorrow night.

MS

Euro Model Shows BRRR

It's just not the Euro model, but all models are capturing enough data to suggest we will be experiencing record to near-record low temperatures by Sunday morning.

A recent run shows temperatures along and east of I-65 to be in the range of -4 to 5 degrees by then. Cold air advection winds may help keep temperature from bottoming out too much. So, even if we do not get to the readings suggested by this latest run of the Euro, wind chills are still expected to be a serious issue. Those readings are expected to be in a range of -10 to -20 degrees for many locations, easily prompting wind chill advisories and borderline wind chill warnings for many of us.

Enjoy the day today while you still can.

MS

NAM Does Not Like Snow Accumulation for Next System

Well, it looks like we may get another chance for snow. Winter Storm Linus (The Weather Channel) took the 'football' from 'Charlie Brown' just like his big sister Lucy. And we were left with nothing but wet ground.

However, don't look for that snow shovel yet. Accumulations with this next system look to be pretty light, on the order of an inch or less according to the latest (12z 02/03/15) NAM. That puts the system about 36 hours out. I would recommend one additional run this evening to see if there is enough consistency run to run.

A weakening band of snow will approach the Ohio River late Wednesday and into the overnight. Accumulations of generally 0.5" along and north of the River.

That may still cause some travel issues for the overnight hours but hopefully the rush hour will not be impacted negatively.

If next run is consistent, no need for further updates.

MS