Cold Front on the Move 01/30/13

A cold front has pushed through. However, temperatures are still in the 50's statewide. A large shield of rain and wind continues advancing eastward across eastern KY.

Now, as I look at the most recent hourly observations and radar data, the main cold air is still positioned just to our west in east central Illinois, just passing Mt Vernon. A thin line of moderately heavy showers are accompanying the front.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this line advance into the region with another round of precipitation. Regardless, the colder air is going to arrive, with or without the showers.

Summary of severe storm event. A rotating storm cell affecting Grayson County (Leitchfield) moved quickly northeast into Breckinridge, Meade, and Jefferson counties. A Tornado Warning was promptly issued for the possibility of a rain-wrapped tornado.

As far as I know, at least from my vantage point in Valley Station (near Prairie Village for you familiar with the area), I could not determine any rotation in the clouds. However, due to the 'swirly' nature of the winds, it was possible something could have been aloft. But, the rain was affecting any visibilities that seemed favorable for a nighttime viewing.

The main line of strongest gusts (45-50 mph) were what I call straight-line winds from the west and south. A few instances of winds coming from the north and west could have been related to the cold front pushing in at the same time thus producing the possible 'swirly' nature of the winds.

Damage to dead-wood limbs occurred at my residence. However, no impressive tree damage, at least in my neighborhood, and no power outages.

South of my location, about 4 or 5 miles, Auburndale trailer park' s residents lost power, possible due to trees blocking the roadway and affecting power lines along Pendleton road. I have also heard of tree damage in PRP, which I will look at in just a little bit. That's only a few miles away from my location.

MS

Tornado Warning for Louisville

I live in Valley Station near Prairie Village. Winds were strong, but below severe limits (45-50mph). No power outages here and this is usually an outage prone area. Pressure dropped from 29.39" to 29.34" as storm cell approached, about a 10 minute span. After strongest winds passed, 10 minutes later, pressure rose to 29.46". I've never seen my barometer act so erratically. I think something was up there. Thankfully, it didn't make it down here.

MS

HRRR Model Potential Wind Gust

With severe weather approaching the region well into the late night hours, I saw a  recent run of the HRRR model, a high resolution rapid refresh model, showing the 10m wind gusts (about 30 feet AGL). By 3am, the line of storms should be approaching the I-65 corridor with a line of 46-77mph winds.

I would hate to have widespread power outages since it appears colder air will be rushing in behind the front.

Don't forget the use the tool 'Mesonet Front Tracker on the side of my blog to keep up with the temps, precip, and wind gusts.

MS

Severe Wx Looking More Likely for Kentucky

1:00pm Update
MODERATE RISK for severe weather for western KY (latest Day 1 Outlook @12:30pm)
Tornadoes are becoming more likely down that way. Could there be a rare 'HIGH RISK' later for some of those areas near Little Rock and Memphis?
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Previous discussion:
It appears things are coming together for a significant severe weather outbreak across much of the midsouth and lower Ohio Valley regions. What I find most disturbing is the consistency of these analogs I've been following for the past couple of days now.

Analogs are somewhat different than models. By definition, an analog is "a historical instance of a given meteorological scenario or feature that is used for comparison with another scenario or feature."

I've been looking at the top 15 analogs that best represent this storm system. A combined mean or average of them yields a forthcoming, impressive outbreak of severe weather with damaging winds and tornadoes.

One of the analogs hits home for many of us here in western and north-central Kentucky. The number 2 analog of Feb 5-6, 2008 shows up consistently.

I've mentioned this in a previous post. There were 131 tornado reports for that storm system across much of Arkansas, western and central Tennessee, and Kentucky, 84 were confirmed. Also, there were 267 wind damage reports.

This storm system may be rightly compared to that one in Feb 2008. SPC has been on board, upgrading parts of the midsouth to a MODERATE risk for severe weather. It will be worth keeping an eye on the next assessment from the SPC's Day 1 Outlook. Parts of western KY may go into the MODERATE risk later.

Updates later.

MS

Moderate Risk for Severe Weather Tue/Wed 01/29 and 01/30

I've been talking about the analogs and how they have been suggesting a potentially widespread severe weather outbreak. I thought maybe a moderate risk for severe weather would go up soon for Arkansas, west Tennessee, and west KY.

Now, based on what the SPC is showing, its updated outlook has put most of Arkansas, extreme southwest Tennessee, parts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the moderate shading.

For everybody else in Kentucky, a high-end slight risk for far west KY while areas along and west of I-65 are in a slight risk shading.

Outside of thunderstorms, very windy conditions should prevail. I look for Wind Advisories to go into effect for most of our region for Tuesday and Wednesday.

More later.

MS

Ominous Analog Shows Up

While researching data from the top 15 analogs, one that shows up brings back memories for me. My little girl had just been born a few days earlier. However, on February 5, 2008, a super tornado outbreak occurred that affected several areas of Kentucky and even Indiana.

This is just one of the 15 analogs that has showed up for this storm system. It does not mean things will be exactly as it happened in 2008. In fact, last I heard was this would be a squall-line event with some embedded tornadoes possible.

More updates later...

MS

Analogs Depicting Severe Weather Chances 01/28/13

At times, especially during the spring, analogs have proven to be useful indicators of what types of severe weather can be expected. In fact, I followed some analogs last year that predicted the violent weather that eventually played out across southern IN and parts of eastern KY.

I'll be updating with additional posts concerning these analogs as we get closer to a possible severe weather outbreak.

Today, I'm looking at a 48-hour NAM based on the top 15 analogs' input made at 7pm last evening. So far, just looking at this run, an impressive outbreak of severe weather for this time of the year could occur. According to the latest run, wind damage appears to be the primary threat. However, tornadoes also look likely in some areas.

Breaking it down, the most likely areas to see severe weather will be central and northern Arkansas, much of  western Tennessee, and western Kentucky. Based on percentages I'm looking at this morning, the top 15 analogs are suggesting a 20-30 percent chance for damaging wind across these areas. Also, an impressive 5-10 percent chance for tornadoes looks greatest across eastern and northern Arkansas along with southwestern Tennessee. An area of southern Missouri south of I-44 may be impacted as well.

However, across our region here in Kentucky, tornado chances do exist (2-5 percent). The  most likely scenario will be the threat for wind damage.

Currently, the SPC has issued its Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook and has much of Arkansas in a high-end slight risk category. I may be going out on a limb here, but I do expect some areas to be upgraded to a moderate risk for severe weather. I would include Arkansas, western Tennessee, and maybe western Kentucky.

Updates will be coming this afternoon.

MS