1:00pm Update
MODERATE RISK for severe weather for western KY (latest Day 1 Outlook @12:30pm)
Tornadoes are becoming more likely down that way. Could there be a rare 'HIGH RISK' later for some of those areas near Little Rock and Memphis?
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Previous discussion:
It appears things are coming together for a significant severe weather outbreak across much of the midsouth and lower Ohio Valley regions. What I find most disturbing is the consistency of these analogs I've been following for the past couple of days now.
Analogs are somewhat different than models. By definition, an analog is "a historical instance of a given meteorological scenario or feature that is used for comparison with another scenario or feature."
I've been looking at the top 15 analogs that best represent this storm system. A combined mean or average of them yields a forthcoming, impressive outbreak of severe weather with damaging winds and tornadoes.
One of the analogs hits home for many of us here in western and north-central Kentucky. The number 2 analog of Feb 5-6, 2008 shows up consistently.
I've mentioned this in a previous post. There were 131 tornado reports for that storm system across much of Arkansas, western and central Tennessee, and Kentucky, 84 were confirmed. Also, there were 267 wind damage reports.
This storm system may be rightly compared to that one in Feb 2008. SPC has been on board, upgrading parts of the midsouth to a MODERATE risk for severe weather. It will be worth keeping an eye on the next assessment from the SPC's Day 1 Outlook. Parts of western KY may go into the MODERATE risk later.
Updates later.
MS
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