Tornadoes on Easter Sunday

This is a worse case scenario. Tornadoes and flooded, blocked roadways making for great difficulties reaching residences affecting hard hit areas near Chattanooga TN. East ridge and Cleveland
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Yazoo City, MS had a confirmed touchdown. But, there have been 3 fatalities in Mississippi today, 2 in Lawrence county northeast of McComb and 1 in Walthall county east of McComb.
Hundreds of homes damaged in Monroe, Louisiana. Several injuries but no deaths being reported so far as searches of residences continue.
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This day is already turning violent for residents of the South.

Right now, I have been tracking scanner reports out of Monroe, Louisiana in Oauchita parish where major damage is being reported. Lots of gas leaks, downed power lines, fallen trees on residences, blocked roadways, structural damage to homes and businesses. Most trapped residents sound like they have been accounted for.

Yahoo City, MS could be in the crosshairs again. They certainly are no strangers to tornadoes over the past 10 years.

...And the Rant Goes On

I am absolutely appalled by the 'new' readings from the official NWS reporting station, supposedly at Bluegrass Airport near Keeneland. The temperature reading is much cooler than surrounding sites like Winchester Mesonet, Frankfort NWS and Mesonet, and even the Lexington Mesonet at 1044 ft, which I have harped on before, is warmer than the 'new' readings from, again supposedly, the official site at Bluegrass airport (elevation around 930 ft).

Certain individuals, including a meteorologist from the Lexington media market, had complained about the temperature readings for quite some time, claiming the sensor was running too warm during the summer. Well, I hope they got their wish. But, the incredible balance shift from too warm to too cool is not acceptable.

The only plausible explanation in support of the 'new' readings is the location of the 'official' site has moved. I cannot verify this but intend to find out.

MS

Analogs Say Severe Weather Possible

Mesoscale discussion issuance of tornado watch 80%
Actually, just issued for area while typing this.
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Off duty police officer reporting tornado on the ground near Franklin/Perry county line south of Mount Vernon, Illinois. This cannot be confirmed, but rotation has been noted by radar.
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Top 15 analogs from CIPS suggest scattered to numerous severe weather reports. Although this is not a widespread, regional issue, expect hail, gusty winds, possible tornadoes.

Probably, for most of us, heavy rainfall will exacerbate flooding issues, especially for weary residents living near tributaries and river systems.

Wet Week Ahead

The pattern will be a wet scenario for our region. The WPC has the Kentucky region within a 2-4" range, with locally higher amounts depending on convection over the next 7 days.

Although I am no longer using the teleconnections page for winter weather, there is a familiar feature that I have seen time and again, a negative PNA and EPO. That combination has been a consistent predictor of wet weather during the winter and looks to continue to predict wet weather for the next 2 weeks.

Gardening enthusiasts like myself may have to wait a while longer to get our hands dirty, uh, muddy.

Those living near rivers should be mindful of the ongoing forecast for widespread rainfall.

Please heed the reminder, "Turn Around, Don't Drown."

Of course, I am a bit more blunt about it. I say, "Don't become the fool that has to be pulled from the 'pool'". The reference to pool in this case is not your backyard swimming structure, but flooded roadways, creeks, streams, and rivers. One pool of water leads to a bigger pool of water. The longer you're in it, the less likely you'll win it.

Severe Weather Updates 03/12/2020

Check this page for updates...
3:10 p.m. edt...no warnings in Kentucky
However, there are power outages in Owensboro, possibly related to lightning? No significant wind reports yet.

Rain-wrapped tornado reported earlier in Edmonson county. No damage reported

Near Woodbury, 66 mph gust at Mesonet station

Rainfall becoming more of an issue...Many flood advisories and warnings being issued across south central Kentucky

Hail reported just north of Bowling Green

Baseball size hail in Greenville today

The Waning Winterless Winter

Is is time to stick a fork yet into this abysmal winter season? Well, technically, some in our region still could receive a little bit more snowfall before Spring begins in earnest.

However, as of March 10, 2020, when we look at the snowfall totals, some numbers might indicate a decent winter for some. But, we have to look at the averages for each location.

Although 15.0" sounds like a decent amount of snowfall for Louisville, who should be seeing 11.6" right now, Indianapolis should be seeing a little over 24", so that 15.0" is only about 61 percent of  normal. St. Louis' total of 14.3" represents a closer approximation to average than anyone in our region, at 89% of normal.

Charleston, WV has recorded 10.8", but that represents only 34 percent of what they should have seen by now. Some locations in our region are reporting only 14 to 17 percent of normal snowfall.

So, nobody in our region has seen above normal snowfall. Again, some values might change, but it's likely that most in our region will not record much more snowfall over the next few weeks.

I say let's get this thing over with. I'm tired of bashing all of the forecasters who got this winter wrong, again. For some of these quacks, this is their 3rd winter out of 4 they have missed, not a good track record if you ask me.

I guess as long as they are out there entertaining the viewers with the HOPE for more snow, most viewers will forgive their favorite TV personality and eagerly look forward to the next winter 'show'.

No need for a disclaimer when the winter 'forecast' comes out next time, your track record speaks for itself.

Nashville Area Tornadoes for March 2-3, 2020

After a thorough review of the damage by the National Weather Service (more information may still be forthcoming), spanning an area from just west of Nashville east to the Cookeville region, one of the strongest tornadoes I have seen in a while affecting a populated region did indeed produce EF-3 to EF-4 damage along its path.

At least 2 dozen people died with hundreds injured. This was a night time event complicated by the storm's forward motion approaching 65 mph! In addition, the report states it could have been worse, but the churning tornado producing EF-4 damage dissipated before reaching the most populous area of Cookeville.

Honestly, even with a weather radio, it would have been considered miraculous if nobody died.

Many thanks to the efforts of on-air meteorologists, the NWS, first responders, and other emergency response officials during this tragic event.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20200303

Lexington BG Airport Thermometer...What's This?

First, let me be the first to say to the naysayers out there who have whined and complained about Lexington's Bluegrass Airport thermometer, that it runs hotter than other areas, it's messing up the climatological record for the city of Lexington and the state of Kentucky for that matter, oh my, well it's time to put it to rest.

I don't want to hear anymore complaining, whining, crying, bashing, whatever about this issue at Lexington concerning this thermo-gate conspiracy.. For the months of December and January, Lexington recorded back to back months of temperatures in the Top Ten Warmest for those months. Compared to the Kentucky Mesonet site in Fayette county just down the road, in January, the reading at BG Airport was nearly 2 degrees higher than the Mesonet site, and in December, the reading at Lexington's Bluegrass Airport averaged 43.9 degrees, while the Mesonet site in Fayette county, the reading was 41.7, again a difference of about 2 degrees.

So far this month, through the 23rd, the average temperature at Lexington's Bluegrass Airport, the official reading for the city of Lexington, has been 36.7 degrees, just 0.5 degrees above normal for the month. How does this rank comparatively with the rest of the state. Well, everyone else is running at least 2 degrees above normal.

In addition, and I had to put this one in its own paragraph to make it stand out, compared to the Kentucky Mesonet site, in Fayette county, yes in Kentucky, the average temperature has been 37.4 degrees, a difference of 0.7 degrees WARMER than the Bluegrass Airport.

Did some get their wish and the thermometer was finally replaced or relocated? Well, I haven't read or heard anything yet. But, this appears rather significant. Stay tuned.

MS

Spring Cleaning (the blog)

I think it's about time for me to update the blog, maybe one day the entire blog page itself. For now, you may notice a few changes already. In my Miks Mix sidebar, for example, there are no listings or sites that I recommend. They either have relocated a web page or a site is having problems loading successfully. In addition, I have other outdated links I need to remove. Of course, some sites are seasonal, like *teleconnections*, *national snow cover map*, and so forth. Those, too, I will be removing, but they will be back next winter.

I will try to recommend fresh sites during the upcoming severe weather season. Some of my favorite news stations with quality meteorologists will be the KFOR news station out of Oklahoma City. I am also a follower of local scanner reports. If the weather is rather benign locally, I will follow what's happening elsewhere and give you the latest updates as it becomes available. These may include severe weather happenings, earthquakes, that kind of thing.

Hopefully, I can tap into some other social media sites as well. Of course, at times, it's difficult to winnow out the sensational from the realistic thus I might need to be judicious in what I post on the MikJournal site.

There you have it. Be looking for some of these updates over the next month or so. Have a good weekend, everyone.

MS

MikJournal Weekly Outlook (Feb 10 - 16, 2020)

A review of last week indeed proved accurate with above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The average precipitation of 2-4" was pretty good. Still, areas of southeast Kentucky got in on nearly 6" of rainfall. But, other areas like my place southwest of Louisville only saw about 0.50". Snowfall was even reported on a region wide basis. Still, if you want to count a general 1-3" as a significant winter storm, I couldn't blame you. For much of us, we doubled our snowfall totals for the snow season and yet, we are still WAY BELOW average, even running behind last year's dismal total around this time.

It was a very impressive storm system. Low pressure readings in the 970ish millibars produced high winds along the east coast, in some cases exceeding 70 to 80 mph. In addition, the rainfall aspect lived up to the hype, especially in the southeastern part of Kentucky and northeast TN, as serious flooding contributed to a few record crests for area rivers along with dangerous mudslides. The snowfall was quite impressive as well with Oklahoma City receiving 4.6".

Looking forward to the week ahead, any winter threats look minimal. Try not to get too excited over any flurries. Ok? But, don't despair. More heavy rain is forecast for the week ahead. Yay! The WPC 1-7 day QPF forecast has our region in 2-5" shadings, with the heaviest amounts in areas that don't need anymore rainfall.

Temperatures should average above normal for the week. However, there will be a couple of cold days. Highest readings will be today and next weekend, with a period of cool to outright cold for Wednesday to Friday.

Teleconnections support a mild, wet week again. PNA is forecast to go from (-) to (+) by week's end. AO looks positive, NAO positive, and EPO from neutral to slightly positive.

The CPC outlook has our region in Above Normal for both temperatures and precipitation for February 15 - 23. Therefore, at this time, February is well on its way to finishing warmer than normal, making a clean sweep for the meteorological winter months, possibly to likely a Top Ten Warmest Winter season.

This will inherently nullify and humiliate some regional 'forecasts' that this winter would be subjected to periodic Arctic outbreaks along with above normal snowfall. Maybe next year, offer to provide the popcorn, on the house, to anyone interested in the next Winter Forecast Entertainment or show. Obviously, I'm not impressed. I'm actually embarrassed that our local Mets have to subject themselves to such humiliation for the sake of ratings and provide a 3-4 month forecast for nothing to go on but a 'dart throw in the dark' guess.

MikJournal Moment

An exhaustive, yet incomplete summary of this most recent storm event. Although not much of a wind maker here locally, I was surprised by the wind gusts, with many non-thunderstorm related reports. And of course, the heavy rain reports along with some decent snow amounts.

Here you go from the WPC's Storm Summary page...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

Heavy Rainfall Update...

picture courtesy of WYMT.com

Mudslide in Leslie county on US421. Nobody other than the driver was on the bus, and the driver was not injured.

Knoxville now at 5.43" for this event, surpassing 12" for the year already.
Our friends in Knox, Bell, Harlan, and Letcher counties are also reporting serious flooding and dangerous mudslides.

In Claiborne county in Tennessee, just across from Middlesboro KY, a scanner report of a 70-yr old driver inside the car that is floating in flood waters off Old Hwy 63.

The Cumberland River at Barbourville KY in Knox county is expected to reach the upper end of the Moderate stage possibly Major stage. It should surpass the 37.53' crest of February 12, 2018.

ALL floodgates to be closed in Harlan. Will Puckett doing a nice job of reminding drivers NOT to drive through floodwaters. If one must travel in Harlan and is safe to do so, the Harlan Baptist church is taking affected residents.
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As of 10:30 this Thursday morning, rainfall totals are approaching 5" at the Knox and Harlan counties Mesonet sites. Middlesboro, in Bell county is also approaching 5" for this event.

I am currently listening to scanner reports for any additional mudslides and/or water rescues from Letcher, Pike, and Knox counties.

Knoxville TN has received nearly 4.5" for a yearly total that is closing in on the 12" mark.

MikJournal Weekly Outlook for 02/03/2020 - 02/09/2020

Welcome to a NEW segment for the MikJournal. Each Monday, I'll post an outlook for the rest of the week. This is not a detailed forecast, but it is more of a synopsis about what to expect. I'll look at teleconnection patterns, at least for a little while longer, the Euro 850 mb temperatures for the week ahead, WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), Climate Prediction Center for temps and precipitation beyond our current week. So, let's hop into it.

First, a review of last week. Temperatures for our region for the last 7 days averaged above normal. Precipitation came in at modest levels, perhaps a bit below normal. Teleconnection patterns suggested a warmer than normal regime. The CPC had our region in an above normal shading for temperatures and a near normal to below normal shading for precipitation. Pretty much spot on.

What can we expect for the week ahead?

The teleconnection patterns...AO+ trending toward neutral, NAO+, EPO-, and PNA- as is currently the forecast. Looking at the combination, this would suggest an above normal temperature pattern despite a brief period of colder weather. Most of the cold should remain well north of our region.

However, the PNA- suggests trough west, ridge east. Well sort of. The combination of Pacific air and Gulf of Mexico air promises to deliver a wet week ahead, along a cold front. The WPC has our region in a 2-4" range of precipitation, again, mostly rainfall.

Whaaaa? Does this mean some of us may get snowfall too? This pattern does not suggest a significant winter storm. I'm telling it to you straight. I don't sugar coat it, or snow-coat it. However, it is possible to get some grassy accumulations this week. Not a big deal. Get over it. It is still winter albeit a dismal winter for snow lovers.

The Euro does suggest an overall warmer than normal pattern as well for the next 10 days. The CPC has its outlook for the 6-10 days and 8-14 days. For the 8th - 12th, above normal temperatures and precipitation. For the 10th - 16th, above normal temperatures and precipitation are expected.

There you go. Have a good week everyone. Look for additional posts this week as it pertains to our expected rain event and any winter issues we might incur as well.

MS

Another Top Ten Finish...

Lexington recorded its 2nd consecutive Top Ten Warmest entry by tying for 7th warmest January on record. December 2019 finished 8th warmest December.

Louisville barely missed Top Ten Warmest status last month, but came back strong in January to finish 7th Warmest for the month.

Other regional locations that finished January in Top Ten fashion include Paducah (9th), Jackson (6th), and London (t-6th),

Frankfort and Bowling Green were also well above normal but missed Top Ten recognition.

Interestingly, the month of January started out very wet, and all indications were pointing toward a top ten wettest month regionally. But, monthly rainfall totals, while still well above normal, did not live up to the hype...kind of like the winter so far.

MS

January 2020 Final Projections

I am now projecting a lock that Louisville and Lexington will record a top ten warmest January. For Lexington, this is the 2nd consecutive month with top ten warmest recognition.

Overall, this has been a blowtorch winter. Additionally, February looks to start out with above normal temperatures. With teleconnections strongly in favor of normal to above normal temperatures, February just might make a clean sweep.

From a meteorological standpoint, the official winter months of December through February could go down as one of the least snowy on record for many locations in our region, as well as one of the warmest winter seasons (top ten?).

MS

MikJournal Moment 01/28/2020

Major earthquake off shore of Cuba. Shipping lanes exist in that region, not too far from cruise ship pathways.
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Teleconnections still not favorable. NAO shows some modest potential for short term blocking. But, any cold shots will last just for 1-3 days, then warm up again. Overall, a near normal to above normal pattern exists for the next several days.

MikJournal Monday 01/27/2020

Good morning to your last Monday of January 2020. Wow! Can you believe it? It's almost February!

If any of you have noticed, especially if you have read the MikJournal before, I love weather history. Today, let's hop in the Way Back machine, shall we Sherman, and travel to January 27, 1998 in the Appalachian mountains.

A heavy, wet snow event collapsed structures, stranded motorists, and caused power outages with as much as 2 to 4 FEET of accumulation in the higher elevations and a general 5 - 10" in the valley areas. Specific states included Tennessee, North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia.

According to the NCDC's Storm Data publication, in Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties, "Heavy wet snow occured in the mountains near the Virginia border. Snowfall accumulations were elevation dependent, with locations below 1000 feet receiving less than 1 inch, while locations above 2500 feet received 8 to 22 inches.  Some specific amounts included 3 inches at Whitesburg, 4 inches at Jenkins, Phelps, Cumberland, and Dorton,  5 inches at Partridge, and 6 inches at Ash Camp. Up to 14 inches of snow accumulated in areas just outside of Jenkins, and 22 inches accumulated on Black Mountain where Kentucky Route 160 crosses into Virginia. The heavy wet snow brought down numerous trees and power lines. More than 100 vehicles were stranded for about 4 hours on KY 160 where the road crosses Pine Mountain between Gordon and Sand Hill.  Conditions were even worse on Black Mountain, where approximately 15  motorists were stranded for over 14 hours."

In West Virginia, a state record for most snowfall in a 24-hour period was established at Flat Top with 35". In and around Beckley, emergency officials concurred that this storm exceeded the Blizzard of March 1993.

Reports of snow flakes the size of "flap jacks and frisbees" or the size of "your fist" were common in McDowell and Fayette counties.

The situation could have been much worse for affected residents. There were 2 deaths directly attributable to the storm, but "one unique problem was the many retired coal miner [sic] that use oxygen generators.  The extended electrical outage presented health concerns."

Interestingly, in Charleston, only rain fell. At Huntington, not a flake or drop of rain was reported

Again, thanks to NCDC Storm Publication for these historic compilations of this snow storm.

Still hoping for a decent snow before winter gives up. But, time is now beginning to run short. We are exiting the coldest part of winter according to a few locations as their average temperatures will be rising from this point forward.

Make it a great week, and thanks for stopping by.

MS

Tornadoes, Strong Winds Today

With still more time left, some 445 wind damage reports have been received so far today.
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According to Madison county scanner, report of a mobile home blown over with occupants inside
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Tree on house trapping residents in Jefferson county.
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Already this morning a report of a rain-wrapped tornado in western Kentucky near Cadiz. Damage has been reported.

Winds exceeding 50 mph have been common across the western part of our region.

The line is supposed to weaken some this morning. But rainfall has been copious. Well over 2" since midnight in western Kentucky along with flash flood advisories and warnings.