MikJournal Weekly Outlook (Feb 10 - 16, 2020)

A review of last week indeed proved accurate with above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The average precipitation of 2-4" was pretty good. Still, areas of southeast Kentucky got in on nearly 6" of rainfall. But, other areas like my place southwest of Louisville only saw about 0.50". Snowfall was even reported on a region wide basis. Still, if you want to count a general 1-3" as a significant winter storm, I couldn't blame you. For much of us, we doubled our snowfall totals for the snow season and yet, we are still WAY BELOW average, even running behind last year's dismal total around this time.

It was a very impressive storm system. Low pressure readings in the 970ish millibars produced high winds along the east coast, in some cases exceeding 70 to 80 mph. In addition, the rainfall aspect lived up to the hype, especially in the southeastern part of Kentucky and northeast TN, as serious flooding contributed to a few record crests for area rivers along with dangerous mudslides. The snowfall was quite impressive as well with Oklahoma City receiving 4.6".

Looking forward to the week ahead, any winter threats look minimal. Try not to get too excited over any flurries. Ok? But, don't despair. More heavy rain is forecast for the week ahead. Yay! The WPC 1-7 day QPF forecast has our region in 2-5" shadings, with the heaviest amounts in areas that don't need anymore rainfall.

Temperatures should average above normal for the week. However, there will be a couple of cold days. Highest readings will be today and next weekend, with a period of cool to outright cold for Wednesday to Friday.

Teleconnections support a mild, wet week again. PNA is forecast to go from (-) to (+) by week's end. AO looks positive, NAO positive, and EPO from neutral to slightly positive.

The CPC outlook has our region in Above Normal for both temperatures and precipitation for February 15 - 23. Therefore, at this time, February is well on its way to finishing warmer than normal, making a clean sweep for the meteorological winter months, possibly to likely a Top Ten Warmest Winter season.

This will inherently nullify and humiliate some regional 'forecasts' that this winter would be subjected to periodic Arctic outbreaks along with above normal snowfall. Maybe next year, offer to provide the popcorn, on the house, to anyone interested in the next Winter Forecast Entertainment or show. Obviously, I'm not impressed. I'm actually embarrassed that our local Mets have to subject themselves to such humiliation for the sake of ratings and provide a 3-4 month forecast for nothing to go on but a 'dart throw in the dark' guess.