Welcome to a NEW segment for the MikJournal. Each Monday, I'll post an outlook for the rest of the week. This is not a detailed forecast, but it is more of a synopsis about what to expect. I'll look at teleconnection patterns, at least for a little while longer, the Euro 850 mb temperatures for the week ahead, WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), Climate Prediction Center for temps and precipitation beyond our current week. So, let's hop into it.
First, a review of last week. Temperatures for our region for the last 7 days averaged above normal. Precipitation came in at modest levels, perhaps a bit below normal. Teleconnection patterns suggested a warmer than normal regime. The CPC had our region in an above normal shading for temperatures and a near normal to below normal shading for precipitation. Pretty much spot on.
What can we expect for the week ahead?
The teleconnection patterns...AO+ trending toward neutral, NAO+, EPO-, and PNA- as is currently the forecast. Looking at the combination, this would suggest an above normal temperature pattern despite a brief period of colder weather. Most of the cold should remain well north of our region.
However, the PNA- suggests trough west, ridge east. Well sort of. The combination of Pacific air and Gulf of Mexico air promises to deliver a wet week ahead, along a cold front. The WPC has our region in a 2-4" range of precipitation, again, mostly rainfall.
Whaaaa? Does this mean some of us may get snowfall too? This pattern does not suggest a significant winter storm. I'm telling it to you straight. I don't sugar coat it, or snow-coat it. However, it is possible to get some grassy accumulations this week. Not a big deal. Get over it. It is still winter albeit a dismal winter for snow lovers.
The Euro does suggest an overall warmer than normal pattern as well for the next 10 days. The CPC has its outlook for the 6-10 days and 8-14 days. For the 8th - 12th, above normal temperatures and precipitation. For the 10th - 16th, above normal temperatures and precipitation are expected.
There you go. Have a good week everyone. Look for additional posts this week as it pertains to our expected rain event and any winter issues we might incur as well.
MS
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