MikJournal Monday 10/23/2017...Stats and Siberian Snowfall

Good morning and welcome to another installment of my weekly journal. What am I putting into the journal today? Well, I think some might be getting excited about winter. So, I'll touch on that for a moment.

While it is exciting to hear about possible flakes of snow before next weekend, wind chills resembling December readings, and the first pot of chili for those of us who waited until now, it is still just the second half of meteorological Fall. Even I hate to say this, but we will see the 60's and 70's again this season.

I took a look at the European 10-day model for potential temperatures, and this is what I found.
After today, I found some 50's for highs in my part of north-central Kentucky before surging into the low 70's or so ahead of a stronger blast of cold air set to arrive by Friday.

So far, the coldest air looks to stay north of the region. Therefore, I cannot say for certainty that snow flakes will materialize with any precipitation that falls behind the front. Still, it will be cold air, and windy too, which will feel even colder.

In addition, it looks like a prolonged cold pattern. Depending on cloud cover, initially, temps may struggle into the 40's for high temperatures. Afterward, even with clear skies, we could be looking at highs in the upper 40's to upper 50's for high temperatures and 20's and 30's for low temperatures. This is a far outcry from the coolest October day of 62 degrees last year. Now, I say prolonged because it should last longer than 3 days in a row. So, we have more below normal temps than above normal temps at least for a little while as we close out the month and enter November.

October has been another toasty month overall, similar to last October. But, this cold spell should negate any chance for another record warm October like 2016. Coming into today, Louisville would easily beat out the 2016 record. But, the averages will be coming down over the next several days. Without making any projections, I still believe it is safe to say that October 2016, at least for Louisville, will be a top ten warmest on record contender.

The Global report is in. For a change, it's not a record setter. But, it looks to be in the top 3 by the end of the year.

The September report shows the global combined land and ocean temperatures as the 4th warmest on record for the month. The Northern Hemisphere had its 3rd warmest.

For the January through September period, the global combined land and ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, right behind 2016. The Northern Hemisphere recorded its 2nd warmest, again behind 2016.

Nationally, the preliminary tornado counts were down last month. However, we are still on track to record the 3rd most tornadoes since 2005.

Back to the snow. Usually, some look to Siberian snow cover in October to understand what effects we may experience here in our part of the U.S. But, doesn't it depend on what will be the main driver for this year's weather? The Siberian snow cover in October is just one driver. Don't forget about El Nino/La Nina, blocking highs, sea ice levels, jet streams. Yes, there are a lot of drivers that affect the atmosphere.

Siberian snow cover was very impressive in October of last year. Yet, our part of the world here in Kentucky saw near record low levels of snowfall for the winter. There was also a weak La Nina in place. So, something besides the Siberian snow cover proved to be the main driver of last year's winter, at least here.

Some did get the snow. The mountains of California saw an abundance of snowfall, the likes of which they have not seen in years, which proved very helpful in replenishing reservoirs for the upcoming summer of 2017 and overcoming devastating drought. Many stations in Maine reported over 100" last winter, well above their average.

So, although the Siberian snowfall in October is off to another good start this year, other drivers such as the potential for another weak La Nina, will compete for driving this year's winter weather.

I will be studying the data during the month of November and offer a brief seasonal outlook of what we could expect here regionally. Then, I will be focusing on a monthly outlook and update any adjustments if needed throughout the winter months. No, I won't be offering any snow accumulations for the entire winter, as that is not scientifically sound. But, levels of above, near, or below normal will be offered.

In conclusion, no national weather extremes to offer for the week, but on this day in 1920, Theodore Fujita was born. And in 1947, it was estimated that thousands of fish fell from the sky in Marksville, LA covering an area of about 1000 feet long by 80 feet wide.

Here's hoping no fish lands on your head today. Make it a great week and get those chili pots ready. I know I will.

MS