MikJournal Monday 10/16/2017...Mid Month Report and Looking Ahead

Ahh. What a breath of fresh air. Good Monday morning to you. Today is starting out much cooler and drier than we've been in a while. I'm registering 50 degrees here at my house at 6:30 this morning, but the dry air makes it feel much cooler. Also, patchy cloud cover is probably keeping my temperature from falling into the 40's. But, several locations are already well into the 40's that surround the city of Louisville.

In addition, I do think some areas could see patchy or even a light frost by tomorrow morning in our region. At just after 6:30 this morning, the lowest temperatures I could find include a 38 degree reading in Harlan county, but that is at 4000 feet, and a 42 degree reading at Mayfield in western Kentucky. Good morning Cynthiana. You were at 43. With another hour before sunrise, temperatures could fall a little bit more where clearing has taken place.

Well, this morning I have prepared a mid-month report about our temperatures for parts of our region.

First, I want to take you back to October 2016. That month was very warm. It was the 7th warmest on record for Lexington, 5th warmest at Frankfort, and 3rd warmest for Bowling Green.

In fact, at Louisville, it was the warmest October on record. Typically, we think of October as a transition month from very warm to very cool. So far, this October and last October have not fit that description.

Using the base or average temperature of 65 degrees, last October through the 15th had already registered just 6 days below the average of 65 for a total of 18 degrees. Normally, we should see 74 total degrees below that average for the first 15 days. Guess how many days have been registered this month below that 65 degree average...just 1 day for a total of 2 degrees. Not much transition so far.

Now last year, it actually was warmer during the second half of October than the first. Again, where's the transition? Not here.

Ok, you might need to hold your head in place with both hands for this one. The second half of October last year was just as warm, even a tad warmer, than the first 15 days of this month. And this month is well along to being a top ten warmest October contender, perhaps a top 3.

However, a transition is still possible for the second half of this month. It looks like we may not see this blistering pace continue much longer. I still believe we will see more days above normal than below normal. But, the colder shots are going to be more noticeable, cutting into those lofty averages.

I am trying to put more faith in the GFS signal that colder air, below normal type of air, will infiltrate our region before month's end. But, the Euro continues to paint normal to above normal temperatures through the rest of this week and slightly beyond. By this time next Monday, the Euro should have a reasonable guesstimate as to the depth of any cold air that could invade our region by the end of the month. But make no mistake about it. Cold air is building in Canada. And it's just a matter of time before chunks of that air mass slide this way.

In conclusion, Ophelia in the east Atlantic looks to hit Ireland with hurricane gusts today. Extreme weather on display.

Here is a look at past extreme weather for the dates of October 16-22....

October 20...

2004 - Mt. Charleston F.S., NV 7.78" (state 24-hr precip record)

October 20-21...

1996 - Portland Jetport, ME 13.32" (state 24-hr precip record)
1996 - Mount Washington, NH 11.07" (state 24-hr precip record)

Make it a good week

MS