Severe Weather Chances

Well, a few days ago, this looked like quite the setup for a more widespread severe weather event. However, I've learned to wait and see if all of the 'ingredients' will be in place by showtime.

In this case, data as well as observation may be verifying that not all of the ingredients will be present after all. Instability will be hindered somewhat by clouds. The strongest energy resides north of the region.

I do think a Severe Thunderstorm Watch should be issued. But, a widespread event appears not as likely as once thought.

I am not going to say that the Enhanced region for severe weather is overdone by the SPC, I just think that the chances for a widespread event are going down. Yes, several warnings may be issued, but actual storm reports may come in smaller numbers this time around.

I believe the squall line will put out possible 40-50 mph winds. This will cause some tree damage and/or power issues. A sporadic gust above 50 mph is possible. Still, not a widespread event.

MS

Welcome to the Spring Page...Sorry to Hear About Storm Chasers

Still have not fully loaded the Spring page, but updates are forthcoming.

Just wanted to take this opportunity to express my condolences to the families and the weather community over the loss of the storm chasers involved in a tragic car accident.

One storm chaser, Kelley Williamson, was a popular regular for The Weather Channel. I really enjoyed his video footage and reports.

I could not help but notice his rustic drawal when he would report on a storm he was chasing. His voice reminded me of Larry the Cable Guy.

Definitely will miss his enthusiasm and love for weather.

MS

MikJournal Monday 03/20/2017...Last Post For Winter Page

 

 

Well, it's that time of year. Right now I hear the birds singing and chirping. We have already 'sprung' forward to Daylight Savings Time. So, without further adieu, let's move on to Spring and forget about this most recent so-called winter.

Okay, you're right. Just one more post about this past winter. After all, it still may snow between now and summer, even here in Kentucky. It's not common, but not impossible either.

If you follow my blog, you will note a running total on the side of the blog with our regional seasonal snowfall amounts, which has been currently updated as of the 19th of March.

Whitesburg, in eastern Kentucky, came in at 9.0". The lowest was Bowling Green, which came in at 0.7". I should have included the northern part of our region, like the Covington area, in with the snowfall amounts, because Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky (or the Covington area) came in at 10.0".

Yes, it is possible other locations may have recorded a higher high and lower low than the ones I follow, but this is just a representation of how our region performed in terms of snowfall, which was puny compared to the last few years.

On the other hand, the mountains in the western U.S. and parts of the Northeast had a banner season for snowfall. I will be updating some seasonal totals as a tribute or farewell in a couple months or so. It's a lot of data. But, at least I won't have to include our totals 😌

How about this March, huh? Louisville has recorded 9 consecutive days of below normal temperatures. That's right. The month of March is below normal for the month, as of this writing. But, is that about to change?

Signs of Spring are back at the drawing table. After a disastrous spell of damaging cold to the young sprouts of early blooming fruit trees and other flowering plants, warmer air is poised to move back into the region. Still, a few hiccups of cold air will penetrate into our region, but overall, it's looking like an above-average trend will be settling in.

Here's a look at the current CPC outlook for April....



In addition, the rest of the month should average out above normal, again with a few hiccups of cold air. Moisture will be more abundant than what we have had recently as well. But, our days of recording any appreciable snowfall is dwindling.

Looking ahead to my Spring page, here's a glimpse of what you may see....

Total Reports = 188

Tornadoes = 12

Hail Reports = 11

Wind Reports = 165 And..... Tornadoes 2017 2016 2015 2014 3-yr avg Preliminary Actual Actual Actual Actual JAN 141 - 17 28 4 16 FEB 115 - 102 3 42 39 MAR 111 - 86 11 20 38 APR - - 141 171 129 146 MAY - - 216 381 130 242 JUN - - 86 184 286 185 JUL - - 107 115 85 102 AUG - - 90 45 33 55 SEP - - 38 17 41 31 OCT - - 20 40 73 45 NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- SUM 367 - 971 1177 886 1041 One more... Tornado Deaths 2017 2016 2015 2014 3-yr avg JAN 20 2 0 0 1 FEB 4 7 0 0 2 MAR 0 0 1 0 0 APR - 1 2 35 13 MAY - 2 7 0 3 JUN - 0 0 2 1 JUL - 0 0 4 1 AUG - 0 0 0 0 SEP - 0 0 0 0 OCT - 0 0 1 0 NOV - 5 0 0 2 DEC - 0 26 5 10 --- -- -- -- -- -- SUM 24 17 36 47 33   Come back and check out my Spring page, beginning soon. I will have severe reports, rainfall totals, drought status, record highs and lows, and so forth.   Have a good week.   MS

Brief Weather News

Paducah, KY doubled its snowfall totals for the snow calendar year that runs from July 1 - June 30, from 0.2" to 0.4", after yesterday's whopping, shutdown amount. And you thought we, in central Kentucky have not had much snow.

Closing out February, Kentucky had recorded a total of 4 preliminary severe weather reports, even a confirmed tornado near Cadiz, in western Kentucky. Well, we've added to that over the last several days....

Total Reports = 186

Tornadoes = 10

Hail Reports = 11

Wind Reports = 165

Brutal weather atop Mount Washington, NH, home of the world's worst weather, as the claim goes. High temperature of -13 and low of -35 yesterday. If that wasn't bad enough, throw in an average wind speed of 78 mph and a gust of 115 mph! I bet there wasn't too many hikers there yesterday.

Good news for California....Their water year, which runs from October 1 through September 30, is off to a record start. The October - February period for statewide average precipitation came in at 27.81", the wettest first 5 months of the water year since at least 1900.

In addition, here is the March 7, 2017 drought report...



That's amazing when you compare that to last year's map on March 8, 2016...



Have a nice Sunday. March Madness is about to begin. Go Cats. Go Cards. Let's hope we don't have to play Northern Kentucky.

MS

Peak Wind Gusts for March 1, 2017

Site ID	County	Peak Gust
CRRL	Carroll	79 mph
PRYB	Graves	77 mph
PRNC	Caldwell	77 mph
VEST	Knott	68 mph
CROP	Shelby	68 mph
HRDB	Mercer	64 mph
HCKM	Fulton	63 mph
PGHL	Christian	61 mph
LGRN	Oldham	60 mph
ELST	Madison	60 mph
HUEY	Boone	60 mph
ZION	Todd	59 mph
SCTV	Allen	58 mph
MRRY	Calloway	57 mph
CCLA	Hardin	57 mph
WLBT	Morgan	56 mph
SWZR	Simpson	56 mph
CLSL	Nicholas	55 mph
PVRT	McLean	52 mph
HDYV	Hart	52 mph
CADZ	Trigg	51 mph
ERLN	Hopkins	51 mph
CHTR	Lewis	50 mph
DRFN	Marshall	49 mph
MRHD	Rowan	49 mph
LGNT	Lincoln	49 mph
WSHT	Mason	49 mph
RPTN	Crittenden	48 mph
DANV	Boyle	48 mph
OLIN	Jackson	47 mph
DORT	Pike	47 mph
RBSN	Harrison	46 mph
WDBY	Butler	46 mph
CCTY	Muhlenberg	46 mph
CMBA	Adair	46 mph
PRST	Bath	46 mph
WNCH	Clark	45 mph
LSML	Franklin	45 mph
BRND	Meade	44 mph
BNGL	Taylor	44 mph
HTFD	Ohio	44 mph
LUSA	Lawrence	44 mph
LRTO	Marion	43 mph
FARM	Warren	43 mph
FCHV	Shelby	43 mph
BNVL	Owsley	42 mph
HHTS	Campbell	42 mph
LXGN	Fayette	42 mph
HDGV	LaRue	41 mph
SWON	Owen	41 mph
FRNY	Union	39 mph
RSVL	Logan	39 mph
MROK	Barren	38 mph
MQDY	Breckinridge	38 mph
GRHM	Henderson	38 mph
GRDR	Cumberland	37 mph
PSPG	Warren	37 mph
BLRK	Grayson	36 mph
PCWN	Casey	36 mph
CRMT	Bullitt	36 mph
WTBG	Letcher	36 mph
RNDH	Metcalfe	35 mph
ALBN	Clinton	33 mph
FLRK	McCreary	32 mph
QKSD	Breathitt	31 mph
BTCK	Johnson	29 mph
BMBL	Knox	29 mph

http://www.kymesonet.org/event_wind.php

MS

Widespread Damage From Severe Storms

Perhaps the most prolific storm event(s) to affect the entire state since January 29-30, 2013.

I don't want to forget our friends in southern Indiana, either.

Widespread damage primarily associated with a grand finale squall line packing winds of 60-80 mph wreaked havoc for Louisville's morning commute and getting those kiddos safely to school.

Scores of local storm reports keep coming in statewide.

Already, Louisville NWS will be conducting several damage surveys today and tomorrow. I am sure Jackson NWS will be doing the same.

I am going out shortly and review the damage to my part of southwest Jefferson County.

MS