Well, a few days ago, this looked like quite the setup for a more widespread severe weather event. However, I've learned to wait and see if all of the 'ingredients' will be in place by showtime.
In this case, data as well as observation may be verifying that not all of the ingredients will be present after all. Instability will be hindered somewhat by clouds. The strongest energy resides north of the region.
I do think a Severe Thunderstorm Watch should be issued. But, a widespread event appears not as likely as once thought.
I am not going to say that the Enhanced region for severe weather is overdone by the SPC, I just think that the chances for a widespread event are going down. Yes, several warnings may be issued, but actual storm reports may come in smaller numbers this time around.
I believe the squall line will put out possible 40-50 mph winds. This will cause some tree damage and/or power issues. A sporadic gust above 50 mph is possible. Still, not a widespread event.
MS
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