Seattle, Washington: Average high temperature for June 1 - August 31, 2015 was 80.2 degrees. This marks the first time ever that the average high temperature was above 80. The record was actually shattered since the second place average high temperature was 77.6, a nearly 2.5 degrees departure from a record set in 1961 and 1958.
In addition, August 2015 marked the 19th consecutive month of above average temperatures and a third consecutive year of a top 5 warmest August on record.
Long time residents who had been used to average high temperatures of around 73 degrees usually experience some warm readings especially in the dry months of June and July, but not on a scale of this magnitude. In fact, typical home owners do not even have central air conditioning because there are only two months out of the year when they would need it.. Only 1 in 6 homes have this luxury, and about the same figure exists for owners of window units, although sales have been increasing at a dramatic rate this summer.
However, newer residents and even long-time residents are in the midst of a third consecutive year of really warm summers. Newer home construction with central air conditioning are becoming popular requests.
Seattle is just one example of a city that experienced record warmth for this summer of 2015. But they are not the only city. Recently, in parts of the Middle East like Iraq and Iran, towns and villages there reported heat indices approaching 160 degrees!
Globally, this July was the warmest on record. In fact the calendar year 2015 is on pace to become the hottest year on record, eclipsing the distinction held last year.
According to climatecentral.org, the ten warmest years on record globally have all occurred since 1998.
However, does this mean that everyone is getting warmer?
The Cold Side...
In South America, they are just finishing the winter season. In some areas, the winter was particularly harsh, brutal. For example, in Peru, the southern Andean region of Puno suffered through their coldest temperatures in a decade.
The alpacas of Peru, which comprises nearly 90 percent of the world's alpaca population, were seriously affected this winter. Looking like a llama in appearance but much smaller, estimates of 250,000 perished, primarily because the ground was frozen. Therefore, many starved to death.
Other notable events in South America include one of the driest places on Earth, the Atacama Desert. It may have not been much, but the heaviest snowfall in 30 years occurred there. Also, heavy snow in parts of Brazil and Bolivia brought about temperatures that averaged nearly 14-16 degrees below average at times.
The winter of 2015 in South America was not just a fluke. Other recent winters have been abnormally harsh. 2013 saw an Antarctic front advance as far north as southeast Columbia and northwest Brazil, Amazon forest territory. According to the source, this has happened less than a dozen times in the past 100 years.
Why, even in the United States, the latest winter of 2014/15 resulted in another year of unusually heavy snowfall and brutal cold, especially along the East coast. Boston's record shattering 110.6" resulted in repeated cleanups leading to a 75-foot high 'snow farm' along the Seaport district. The last vestiges of this mountain of snow finally melted July 14!
So, the claim about this year possibly being the warmest on record and among the ten warmest years that have all occurred since 1998, is this 'just a bunch of hot air'? What analyses have been done to substantiate the claim? What are my thoughts?
Climate Change vs. Global Warming
Pundits who want to persuade their side of the argument for or against the warming of our planet have much to say about the matter.
Proponents who support the warming argument have been advocating their stance since at least the mid-1970's. 'Global Warming' was the term coined in 1975.
Global warming is defined as "an increase in the average global surface temperature resulting from human emissions of greenhouse gases." (Italics mine)
Before that term, 'inadvertent climate modification' was used. However, there was not enough information understood to determine what type of change in climate would result from human activities, whether it be cooling or warming.
Nevertheless, global climate change is the term most accepted in scientific circles. Global warming is just one aspect of global climate change, because other aspects like precipitation patterns and sea levels are also involved along with other natural variability.
Then, there is the official definition of climate change, which is worded differently, from place to place.
""Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." - United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change
"Climate change in IPCC usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity." - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Methods/Measurements
This will be a more interesting section, I promise. An examination of the different methods scientists use to measure the earth's temperature is in no way an exhaustive and comprehensive list that I post here. I'll never finish writing this article if I had to include every method. The listed methods are just the ones I selected that I thought were noteworthy and do not suggest the only methods that should be used to obtain the needed data.
First, land thermometers have been in place for years. As for the oceans, data was collected from ships that would be in the area. Although there were numerous shipping routes, the ships were never in the same area at the same time. Therefore, we pretty much had an incomplete picture of how warm the oceans were over a period of time.
Well, as early as the 1960's, satellites became a means of disseminating useful information. The introduction of microwave sounding units, or MSU's, which are used to derive the intensity of upwelling microwave radiation from atmospheric oxygen was used in conjunction with weather balloons and radiosondes to measure the temperature of the lower troposphere.
Also, today, we have satellites that measure sea surface temperatures that use thermal infrared readings and microwave measurements.
Despite these seeming advances, every method has its drawbacks or weaknesses. At one time during the late 90's, it was noted that there was a discrepancy in the data from satellites that suggested an overall trend of warming versus the actual reading of the lower tropospheric data that suggested cooling. This was a result of the satellite 'drifting' from its orbit. Eventually, adjustments were made and streaming of useful data was being obtained once again.
However, faulty sensors have been suggested for other discrepancies from satellites. So, this highlights an obvious and glaring problem. Everything we make, it will eventually break down. The data we need will become useless unless we can benefit from additional methods.
That leads us to the next method of collecting data, especially from the oceans. As useful as satellites have proven, some weaknesses may also include cloud cover, resulting in inaccurate readings, or poor resolution of accurate data to determine where said data is being measured on the globe. Why not therefore have an array of sensors on the water for collecting data? Not just buoys here and there, but a global arrangement of sensors.
Wow, that sounds formidable. There's no way to cover every inch of the ocean. Well, that may be true. But, do not tell Argo there's no way. Argo? Who's Argo?
It is not a 'who', but a what. I invite you to consider the home page of Argo here.
Briefly, it is a global array of floats used to measure temperature and salinity of the oceans down to a depth of 2000 meters. At last count, as I write this post, there are 3,881 of these floats. Consider a video at the link below. It is presented in a kid-friendly format, but I learned a lot about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGbanFvBX38
The key objective of Argo is to observe ocean signals related to climate change. At present Argo admits, "The global Argo dataset is not yet long enough to observe global change signals. Seasonal and interannual variability dominate the present 10-year globally-averaged time series." Nevertheless, as more of these floats are implemented, we are going to get a better picture how the oceans are handling climate change and any contributions that the oceans may be contributing to climate change.
Also, there is bound to be updated modeling data that will become synchronous with satellites and the four or five different datasets collected to help issue the overall global temperature now and into the future.
An additional key measure for tracking climate change includes measuring carbon dioxide readings, one of those greenhouse gases. One of my favorite sites is the one at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. The overall trend shows a gradual increase in CO2 readings each year. During the year, levels increase through May and decrease through September. Primarily, decay in plants and dead leaves contribute more carbon to the atmosphere thus an increase in levels from October to May. However, the steady rise over the past several decades also suggests human emissions of CO2 as well. You can check the latest readings here.
Also, I find the sea ice extent in the polar regions to be of some value. Over the past several years, the Arctic sea ice has been diminishing during its minimum and the Antarctic sea ice has been increasing at its maximum. You can look for reports for the Arctic at this site. Presently, it is near the 4th lowest extent on record as we near the mid to late September minimum. As the August report cited, the sea ice extent toward the end of the month picked up a bit after slowing down initially.
Conclusion
During this research, I found it difficult to find unbiased, factual information. I wanted to present the debate whether the earth is really deserving of the claim that the ten warmest years have occurred since 1998 from a neutral stance so that the reader can arrive at his own conclusion based on the provided information. And hopefully, the information is from credible sources of high reputation and integrity.
My thoughts are:
I do believe the earth's climate is changing. We are seeing climatic anomalies all over the globe. Is the earth really deserving of these record warmth claims? I am not ready to jump on that bandwagon yet as more data is still yet to be studied. I think the service and deployment of the Argo floats will help scientists and climatologists to get a better handle on the state of our planet's climate in the future. For now, we will have to put up with doomsday declarations from both sides (the hot and cold), actually, until then.
(Sources:)
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/as-seattle-sweats-few-air-conditioners-cool-us-down/
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Its-officially-Seattles-hottest-summer-on-record-averaging-80-degrees--323557951.html
https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/SSHA_10day.png
https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/OceanEvents/2015_09_03_ElNinoWatch
http://argo3000.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-much-have-ocean-temperatures.html
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/
http://floats.pmel.noaa.gov/dataselect/
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/global_change_analysis.html
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/annexessglossary-a-d.html
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2015-hottest-year-to-date-18895
http://www.peruviantimes.com/28/peru-declares-state-of-emergency-in-puno-as-temperatures-drop/20080/
http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/3729/20130829/snow-blanketing-south-america-kills-250-000-alpacas-5-people.htm
http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_9e9a296f-d417-5a71-9af3-64eec8e2264a.html
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/15/us/boston-snow-pile-finally-melts/
http://pmm.nasa.gov/education/articles/whats-name-global-warming-vs-climate-change
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/01/explainer-how-do-scientists-measure-global-temperature/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-temperature-data-sets-overview-comparison-table
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