***NEW*** SQUALCON Index

Here is something new I developed exclusively for my blog, the SQUALCON Index. You have already heard of The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes and his TORCON Index. Well, this experimental index will help assign a numerical value for determining the strength of an expected squall line of thunderstorms (or non-thunderstorms).

There are many sources and references I use to establish the new index. Forecasts from numerical models like GFS and NAM, analogs, Storm Prediction Center, and other National Weather Service products are a few of the samples.

The SQUALCON Index is experimental because various challenges exist. For example, what defines a squall line? Does a derecho count or its cousins, the MCS and MCC, the cluster of storms that are defined as such based on size and shape?

Other questions and challenges may include whether to assign a value to the entire squall line or to a regional/local focus.

Below is the table with associated values and descriptors....

Scale of 1-5.

1 - Winds of 25 to 35 mph; scattered small twigs.
2 - Winds of 35 to 45 mph; numerous twigs and scattered small limbs.
3 - Winds of 45 to 55 mph; numerous small to medium-size limbs, isolated power outages.
4 - Winds of 55 to 65 mph; large limbs, susceptible trees uproot, widespread power outages.
5 - Winds > 65 mph; widespread damage to trees, power outages, shingles affected.

Applying this table to a regional focus, for later today, I've assigned a value of 3.3.

Therefore, I would expect a few severe reports, but this is not expected to be a widespread event, at least in our region.

Winds just above the surface should register between 44 and 62 mph. How much of that will translate to the surface? Not all of it, but we should expect winds of at least 40 - 50 mph on average with higher gusts. Also, the foliage will add extra weight to limbs, making them more prone to damage if wet.

MS