Nowcast Severe Weather Vigilance

10:30pm...Final update...Primarily a large hail event. Reports of 2.50-3.00" size hail in Boyle county near Danville. Several rotating clusters but not many tornado reports.
--------------

4:10pm...Filtered sunshine at my house and temperature is responding. Still in the low to mid 60's.
---------------
2:00pm...My temperature is at 59...Pressure at 29.55"...Wind from NE.
New storms are beginning to break out in the warm sector near St Louis. These will be worth watching as this could mark the beginning of the severe outbreak. Temps across west KY into the 70's and dew point in the 60's. No change in my thinking for possible severe weather placement.
-----------------
12:20pm...Valley Station temperature at 54...Pressure at 29.63" and wind is from the NE.
-----------------
Good afternoon. The waiting game has begun. Location of the low is still well WNW of the region. The warm front is making some headway northeast. My calculations have low pressure tracking right along or just north of the Ohio River at Louisville. Up to 50 miles south of this feature along with its accompanying warm front will become a focal point for severe weather. This would be slightly north of my initial crosshairs. I'm still including the same areas of Campbellsville, E'town, and Columbia, but will include Rineyville, Radcliff, and Bardstown.

The 12z run of the NAM appears to have the low placed a little farther south of my thoughts but severe placement looks good.
--------------------

I will be reporting in a few times today, mainly updating where greatest data for severe weather resides. I may even get the chance to go and report from a location other than my home base in Valley Station.

At this time, my travels may take me to the Bernheim Forest, Clermont, Bardstown exit at I-65.

I will know something by later this morning or this afternoon.

MS