After analyzing latest data, I have given our region of southern Indiana to central Kentucky from Owensboro to Lexington a 2.8 out of 5 using my exclusive SQUALCON Index. Top 5- ranked analogs for our region average 9.6 / 13, fairly low for widespread severe weather (range of 3 highest to 13 lowest).
The last time I used this experimental index, I assigned a 3.3 to the region with Louisville being the regional center. Most of the severe weather reports occurred east of Louisville. Any value above 3 signifies an increasing likelihood for severe weather associated with any form of a line of thunderstorms or non-thunderstorms.
While I do expect some severe weather reports regionally, I still believe that the strongest storms will reside mostly north of our region. Using Indianapolis as the center of its region, I am assigning a higher value of 3.3.
You can see the SQUALCON descriptors here on my blog. Remember, this is still experimental. Additional modifications are expected as I tweak possibly several variables.
An average value of 3 for a particular region means there is a 50 percent chance for severe weather reports within the assigned center's region.
MS
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