Severe Storms Looking More Likely

Severe Update
Still want to look at the next main run of the models compared with past systems.
Right now I have E'town, Campbellsville, Columbia, Upton, in the crosshairs. But, Bowling Green and points south into Tennessee could be hit particularly hard. Although some models are showing wobbling, the Ohio River could be the dividing line.
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Run to run of the NAM is consistent 00z to 12z), even though I would like to entertain the 00z run later this evening.

The NAM is leading the way suggesting a widespread severe weather event across Kentucky, Tennessee, northern MS and northern AL.

A recent NAM analog points to a March 28 1997 severe weather outbreak that killed at least 2 and injured 14 in Kentucky.

Of course, that does not mean it will happen again in the exact same fashion as that particular storm system then. After all, the 1997 weather map showed a Low pressure system several hundred miles north of where the upcoming low is forecast to trek. Nevertheless, most of the severe weather occurred along the warm front draped across Kentucky. And that is what is expected to happen in this instance.

In fact this scenario (the current one) has the potential to be more explosive than the 1997 storm system since the proximity of the low and thus the added spin in the atmosphere will be closer to Kentucky.

Severe storms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the warm front while the low pressure treks along its path. Dangerous setup indeed.

However, it is possible that the bulk of the severe weather, tornadoes, will be confined to southern KY, Tennessee, northern MS, and northern AL with the highest chance across Tennessee.

This storm system is still developing. I would not be surprised if Louisville gets in on at least a large hail threat. More updates later as more information becomes available.

MS