Experimental Forecast Using ECMWF and GFS Temperatures September 13-21

09/15/14 UPDATE
Oops...I never mentioned the forecast below is for Louisville, KY. I'm betting people in Florida were probably upset with me about this forecast. Okay, probably not.

By the way, so far, the highs were 68 Saturday and 75 Sunday for Louisville. The models have done a pretty good job over the weekend as far as my interpretation of the 850mb forecast. One has to remember that 850mb forecasts can be misleading because warm air advection and cold air advection can skew results. -- MS

During the past week, I've been able to use the ECMWF or the European Medium-Range forecast model and have found it fairly accurate at forecasting temperatures some 5-7 days out.

I favor the European model instead of the American model (GFS) at this many days out. However, I do like the NAM model, but it only goes out a few days.

Temperatures for the upcoming week...Fri 12 Sep 00Z run

Saturday...
GFS near 70
NAM 69
ECMWF 67

Sunday
GFS 75
NAM 74
ECMWF 74

Monday
GFS 79
ECMWF 77

Tuesday
GFS 75
ECMWF near 70

Wednesday
GFS 72
ECMWF 71

Thursday
GFS 74
ECMWF 76

Friday
GFS 76
ECMWF 79

Saturday
GFS 77
ECMWF 81

Sunday
GFS 80
ECMWF 83

The models agree about another cool day for Saturday before moderating well into the 70's by Monday. Then another shot of cooler air arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday. The Euro and GFS differ on how cool by Tuesday but then show a gradual warming trend for Thursday thru Sunday. It looks like the best chance for widespread precipitation won't be until sometime next weekend. So, enjoy the upcoming weather and the nice temperatures.

MS