My Thoughts for the Next Two Weeks (Sept 8 - 22 2014)

Fall is in the air. Love it.

At times, I like to gather whatever resources I have at my disposal and make a prognostication about what will happen over the next two weeks.

From the CPC, below normal temperatures are a sure bet over the next several days. In fact the 6-10 day outlook places Kentucky within a 70-80 percent probability for below normal temps.

Next, precipitation outlook finally levels off. It appears we will finally normalize or even be slightly below normal during this period.

Medium-range models like the ECMWF show two shots of cooler air invading the region, not counting the one we have currently.

The first one has been well-advertised on this blog and continues to show a chunk of very cool air carving out a large piece of atmospheric real estate that will include us here in Kentucky.

High temperatures look to be somewhere in the 60's to near 70 with lows from 40-50 degrees by Saturday and Sunday morning.

PNA teleconnection suggests a  positive reading for the west coast. That may not sound familiar, but this should. Ridge west, trough east.

With cold air building in Canada, storm tracks will go up and over the western ridge, tap into the Canadian Cooler, and dive south into our part of the world. That's what happens with this first setup.

The next setup is intriguing. Model indications favor a system with tropical characteristics moving up the Atlantic coast in about a week. Deepening low pressure within the Gulf Stream current will cause the counter-clockwise flow around low pressure to reach into the Canadian provinces as it intensifies thereby bringing additional cool air into our region, though perhaps not as cool as the first one.

Of course, we'll have to wait and see how that works out. In between the cool shots, we will have some warmth, though the summer-like heat may just about be over.

MS