Friday, July 25, 2014

El Nino Off to a Late Start???

It's been advertised as possibly the biggest one yet. However, just like a well-hyped meteor shower, the initial sizzle of the upcoming strong El Nino is now looking more like a fizzle.

According to the latest news reports, El Nino has been slow to develop and is now forecast to be weaker than the prior forecast.

California generally benefits from El Nino's presence every 2-7 years during the late fall and winter periods. Often, excessive rains alleviate long-term drought as a parade of storms impact the west coast.

At other times, a Pineapple Express' moisture fetch benefits California as the Polar Jet becomes split upon encountering a blocking High near Alaska. The southern part of the split combines with the subtropical jet stream and is driven from the region near Hawaii (thus Pineapple) all to way to the western U.S coastline. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is an important parameter with this event.



El Nino Discussion

MS

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