Could This Be Winter's Last Gasp???

Winter's Last Stand???

Well, this is March. Anything can happen. One thing is for sure, most snow amounts do not stick around very long. So, if you get anything, be sure to enjoy it.

However, I'm taking a closer look at the 12z run of the NAM right now. I was not fully convinced of the 06z run, which did nothing but provide confusing data for everyone.

I'll update in a little bit....

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2PM UPDATE
This is not my forecast. However, it is my interpretation of the 12z run of the NAM. I chose this run because this should be the most accurate part of its run based on the time frame.

Based on temperature, 850mb temperature profile, precipitation type, and total precipitation, here are my thoughts.

Most of the precipitation looks to stay along and south of the Ohio River. There is still the potential for a few inches of snow to be realized across parts of central and eastern KY.

However, upper level profiles do not support the data for widespread accumulation amounts. Temperatures at the 850mb level suggest a mix while surface temperatures cool below freezing across much of the state by tomorrow night.

Therefore, expect a mix of rain, sleet, and snow, and possibly some freezing rain. Bowling Green should be all rain; however, they stand the best chance of seeing freezing rain, based on this run of the NAM.

Elsewhere, a mix of precipitation can be expected, especially as we approach nightfall. By midnight Sunday night into Monday morning, a mix of precipitation should be ongoing. If we get all snow, 1-3" can be expected from Louisville to E'town and points east along I-64 and points south to Mount Vernon and Pikeville in eastern KY.  However, a mix looks to negate much of the totals. The higher elevations of eastern KY and the Bluegrass may realize the best chances at accumulating snow.

According to the 12z run of the NAM, Louisville may see very little snow. Lexington could get some accumulation. Ashland, Mavity, and higher elevations near Pikeville and Drift could see modest snow totals.

MS