First Call for Snowfall 01/24/13

Well, I've had a chance to examine the recent runs of the NAM and do lean heavily toward this model as I forecast these amounts. I will throw in what my MrHP forecast will be along with my personal expectations.

First, let me say there will be quite a bit more of mixed precipitation than snow for this event. To summarize, I expect all snow from Carrollton northeast to Cincinnati and east to Ashland. Louisville should expect a mix of snow and sleet. Lexington also a mix of snow and sleet, although more snow than Louisville. Bowling Green could see freezing rain and sleet throughout the event while Somerset could see freezing rain and sleet before changing to all snow later in the event. Again, a very complex setup.

MrHP says...
Cincinnati 1-2"
Louisville <1" + sleet
Lexington 1" + sleet
Ashland  1-3"
Somerset  0.1 - 0.2" ice, <1" snow + sleet
Bowling Green 0.1 - 0.2" ice + sleet

MikeS says...
Cincinnati  1-2"
Louisville <1" + sleet
Lexington  1-2" + sleet
Ashland  2-3"
Somerset  1" + sleet, 0.1 - 0.2" ice
Bowling Green 0.1 - 0.2" ice + sleet

NWS says (as of 12:30pm est)
Cincinnati  1-3"
Louisville 1" + sleet
Lexington 2"
Ashland  1-3"
Somerset  <1"
Bowling Green 0.2" ice

Very subtle differences in the forecasts above. I will say that the NWS has the best track record . However, I'm beating my MrHP forecast model for the season. The most obvious differences are that Lexington is expecting no sleet and Somerset no ice according to NWS offices.

MS