Looking For SAPS (Season-Altering Pattern Shift)

Although the current 8-14 day forecast from the CPC shows our region basking in above normal readings, there are indications of a significant cold spell developing around here by the 18th of the month (next Tuesday). Let's take a look at these current maps:

From the CPC:



Look at the latest GFS model for the 18th of October...

Take note where the '540' line is. That is what we call the freezing line. Yes, I know it's several days out, but the GFS has been somewhat persistent with this feature.

Looks like the cold front that will pass through here later this week, well, its parent Low could get left behind, and spin around near the Hudson Bay area pulling down cold air and funneling that down here in our neck of the woods by early next week.

Will be something to monitor as this could be the Season-Alterning Pattern Shift that I've been waiting for that normally occurs in the month of October. Such a pattern shift could be a signature of what to expect for our upcoming winter.

In just a few days, I'll be presenting my thoughts about some of the locations where our winter could be coming from and what to expect from those locations in my final segment about Working On the Winter Forecast 2011/2012.

MS